Standard Chartered has revised its stablecoin market forecast, pushing its $2 trillion market capitalization target to 2030 despite continued growth in transaction activity.
The international banking group previously expected the stablecoin sector to reach that milestone by 2028. However, slower growth in outstanding stablecoin supply has prompted the bank to extend its timeline by two years.
According to a research report shared with Cointelegraph, the global stablecoin market has remained relatively unchanged at approximately $309 billion in 2026.
Nevertheless, rising transaction volumes suggest that stablecoins are becoming increasingly important for digital payments, cryptocurrency trading and other financial applications.
Standard Chartered Sees Rising Stablecoin Adoption Despite Market Slowdown
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, highlighted an important shift in how stablecoins are being used.
Although the total market capitalization has stopped expanding significantly, existing stablecoins are moving between users more frequently.
This suggests that increasing transaction activity, rather than the creation of additional stablecoin supply, is driving the sector’s current development.
Furthermore, the expansion of stablecoin applications across different industries indicates that demand for blockchain-based financial transactions continues to strengthen.
The bank’s revised outlook therefore reflects slower market capitalization growth rather than a broader decline in stablecoin adoption.
Four Stablecoin Markets Emerge as USDC and USDT Compete
Standard Chartered identified four distinct segments within the stablecoin industry, each characterized by different users, applications and competitive conditions.
1. Emerging Market Savings
Tether’s USDT maintains a dominant position in emerging economies, where individuals frequently use dollar-pegged digital assets to preserve purchasing power and access US dollar exposure.
2. Developed Market Payments
Circle’s USDC leads stablecoin payment activity in developed economies, where businesses and financial institutions are increasingly exploring blockchain-based payment systems.
3. Cryptocurrency Trading
USDC and Ethena’s USDe have established significant positions in cryptocurrency trading, supporting liquidity and transactions across digital asset platforms.
4. Artificial Intelligence Transactions
USDC also leads the smaller but developing market for payments between autonomous artificial intelligence agents.
Although this segment remains relatively limited in size, it represents another potential application for stablecoins as automated financial transactions evolve.
Stablecoin Payment Competition Intensifies Over Reserve Yields
Standard Chartered expects competition to become particularly intense in the developed-market payments sector.
Emerging alternatives, including USDG, M^0 and stablecoin networks supported by multiple banks, are seeking to challenge established payment providers.
These competitors aim to introduce alternative infrastructure for transferring and settling funds through blockchain-based systems.
However, Kendrick believes that competition may ultimately depend on how stablecoin issuers and payment networks distribute the income generated by their reserves.
Stablecoin issuers generally hold backing assets such as cash and short-term government securities. These reserves can generate interest income, creating an important source of revenue.
Consequently, agreements determining how reserve yields are shared could influence which stablecoin networks attract financial institutions, payment providers and other commercial users.
The ability to offer attractive economic incentives may therefore become a major competitive advantage as stablecoin adoption expands.
US Stablecoin Regulations Could Reshape the Industry
The revised Standard Chartered stablecoin forecast also comes amid important regulatory developments in the United States.
Following the passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025, American regulators have been developing additional rules covering stablecoin issuance, reserve management and consumer protection.
These measures are intended to establish clearer operating requirements for companies issuing dollar-backed digital assets.
However, some proposals have also highlighted limitations in the protections available to stablecoin holders.
For example, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has proposed excluding stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance coverage.
Such restrictions could affect how consumers and financial institutions evaluate the risks associated with holding stablecoins.
Treasury Licensing Rules Set to Take Effect in 2027
The US Treasury Department has also advanced its implementation of the GENIUS Act.
In August, the department proposed regulations that would restrict stablecoin issuance within the United States to entities authorized at either the federal or state level.
The proposed licensing requirements are expected to become effective in January 2027.
These changes could significantly influence the competitive environment for stablecoin issuers, particularly as traditional financial institutions consider entering the sector.
Regulatory clarity may also play an important role in determining how quickly stablecoins become integrated into established payment and financial systems.
Accounting Changes May Encourage Corporate Stablecoin Payments
Alongside regulatory developments, proposed accounting reforms could further influence stablecoin adoption among businesses.
In August, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), responsible for establishing US financial accounting standards, proposed changes affecting how certain stablecoins are recorded on corporate balance sheets.
The proposed revisions could simplify financial reporting for companies using eligible stablecoins.
Blockchain payments company Tempo suggested that these changes could reduce accounting complications associated with stablecoin payments and settlement transactions.
As a result, businesses may find it easier to incorporate stablecoins into their existing financial operations if the proposed framework is adopted.
Stablecoin Market Outlook: Transaction Growth Remains Key
Despite delaying its $2 trillion stablecoin market capitalization target until 2030, Standard Chartered continues to identify growing demand for stablecoin-based transactions.
The bank’s research suggests that the industry is evolving beyond cryptocurrency trading, with payments, emerging-market savings and AI-driven transactions becoming increasingly important.
Meanwhile, regulatory reforms, accounting changes and competition over reserve income could reshape the market over the coming years.
Although total stablecoin supply has remained relatively stable, increasing transaction activity demonstrates that existing digital assets are being used more frequently.
Ultimately, the industry’s long-term expansion may depend not only on the amount of stablecoins in circulation but also on their adoption across financial services, businesses and emerging digital payment applications.
