Oil Prices Edge Higher After Strong China GDP Data
Oil prices recovered from early losses and moved slightly higher in Asian trading on Thursday, supported by stronger-than-expected economic growth in China, the world’s largest crude importer.
However, crude markets remained under pressure for the week, as optimism around easing tensions between the United States and Iran limited upside momentum.
Brent crude futures rose 0.1% to $95.06 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) held steady at $88.06 per barrel.
Strong China Growth Supports Oil Demand Outlook
China’s economy expanded more than expected in the first quarter of 2026, driven by robust exports and a gradual recovery in domestic consumption.
Gross domestic product grew 5% year-on-year, placing it at the upper end of Beijing’s official target range.
This data boosted optimism around oil demand, given China’s position as the largest global importer of crude. However, other economic indicators suggested that growth momentum slowed toward the end of the quarter.
Uncertainty Remains Amid Iran Conflict
Despite positive data, China’s economic outlook remains uncertain due to the ongoing Iran conflict. Beijing relies heavily on crude imports from Iran, making it particularly sensitive to disruptions in supply and pricing.
Oil Under Pressure from Iran Peace Talks
Oil prices have faced significant downward pressure this week, as markets reacted to increasing expectations of renewed diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran.
Donald Trump indicated that negotiations could resume soon and suggested that an end to the conflict may be near. However, geopolitical risks remain elevated.
The U.S. has reportedly enforced a naval blockade against Iran, complicating the diplomatic outlook. At the same time, Iranian officials have warned against further escalation, particularly around the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Strait of Hormuz Remains a Key Flashpoint
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a central point of tension in the conflict. While some vessels have reportedly resumed passage, disruptions remain a concern for global oil supply.
There are also indications that Iran may consider allowing safer passage through certain routes as part of a potential agreement.
Ceasefire Holds, But Risks Persist
A fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran appears to be holding, with no major new escalations reported in recent days. However, the agreement is set to expire on April 21, leaving markets cautious.
At the same time, reports suggest that the U.S. is planning to deploy additional troops to the region, raising concerns about a possible escalation.
Oil Market Faces Demand and Supply Pressures
Oil prices previously surged to around $120 per barrel following the onset of the conflict, but have struggled to maintain those levels.
Emergency reserve releases by major economies, combined with warnings from the International Energy Agency and OPEC about weaker demand, have weighed on prices.
The balance between geopolitical risks, supply disruptions, and demand concerns continues to shape the outlook for global oil markets.
