The DAX may have a trend problem hiding inside a strong rally.
At first glance, the chart looks constructive.
Higher highs.
Price above major moving averages.
Strong recovery from the March low.
But markets often become most interesting when bullish trends collide with stubborn resistance.
And that is exactly what appears to be happening now.
Trend Structure
The broader trend remains constructive.
Visible structure shows:
• Series of higher highs since the March low
• Strong recovery from the correction phase
• Price trading above both major moving averages
• Buyers maintaining medium-term control
However:
Momentum has started encountering resistance at a familiar area.
And that resistance has now been tested multiple times.
Support / Resistance
Visible resistance:
• Major resistance zone near the recent highs
• Area around the highlighted triple-top region
This zone has repeatedly rejected price.
Visible support:
23,650
This is the key support level highlighted on the chart and the downside projection target.
The market currently trades between these two important zones.
Moving Averages
Visible MAs:
• 50 MA ≈ 23,973 (blue)
• 200 MA ≈ 24,175 (orange)
Observations:
• Price remains above both moving averages
• Longer-term structure remains constructive
• Moving averages continue supporting the broader trend
The trend is still bullish.
The question is whether momentum remains bullish.
Indicators Visible
RSI(14):
Current RSI:
≈ 59
Most interesting observation:
The chart highlights a visible:
Triple Top
on RSI.
While not a confirmation signal by itself, repeated momentum peaks often suggest buyers are finding it harder to generate follow-through strength.
Momentum remains positive.
But no longer accelerating.
Chart Pattern
Primary visible pattern:
Triple Top Resistance
The market has now tested a similar resistance area multiple times.
Repeated tests can lead to:
• Eventual breakout
• Momentum exhaustion
The chart currently leaves both possibilities open.
Bullish Scenario
For buyers:
• Resistance zone eventually breaks
• Higher-high structure remains intact
• Trend continuation resumes
The broader trend still favors this outcome unless support begins failing.
Bearish Scenario
For sellers:
• Triple-top resistance remains effective
• RSI momentum continues fading
• Price rotates toward:
23,650 support
This is the primary downside level highlighted on the chart.
One interesting observation:
Markets often look strongest immediately before resistance becomes important.
Not because the trend has ended.
But because expectations become one-sided.
The DAX currently finds itself at exactly that kind of crossroads.
Do you think the DAX breaks above its resistance zone this time — or does the triple-top structure send price back toward 23,650 support?
