Investor Steve Eisman believes the current artificial intelligence boom is heavily dependent on the success of just two major AI companies: OpenAI and Anthropic.
Eisman, best known for betting against the U.S. housing market before the global financial crisis, said that a large portion of AI-related revenue at major technology companies is tied to these two startups.
OpenAI and Anthropic Drive Major AI Revenue
Speaking on CNBC’s Fast Money, Eisman said OpenAI and Anthropic account for roughly 70% of AI-related revenue at Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet’s Google and Oracle.
He also estimated that the two AI companies represent around 25% to 35% of cloud revenue across those technology giants.
In Eisman’s view, this creates a significant level of dependence on the continued growth and success of OpenAI and Anthropic.
The future performance of some of the world’s largest technology companies is therefore closely linked to whether these two AI leaders can continue expanding their businesses and supporting demand for cloud infrastructure.
China Could Be a Major Risk to the AI Trade
Eisman highlighted Chinese artificial intelligence models as one of the biggest potential threats to the current AI investment story.
Chinese open-source and open-weight AI models are generally cheaper to operate and are reportedly beginning to gain market share.
If that trend accelerates, Eisman believes it could create intense pricing pressure across the artificial intelligence industry.
A major price war could reduce revenue growth for companies currently benefiting from expensive AI infrastructure spending and cloud computing demand.
Cheaper AI Models Could Pressure OpenAI and Anthropic
The key concern is that lower-cost alternatives from China could challenge the pricing power of OpenAI and Anthropic.
If businesses increasingly adopt cheaper Chinese AI models, demand for higher-cost services could weaken.
That could potentially affect not only OpenAI and Anthropic but also the large cloud providers supplying them with computing infrastructure.
Companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Oracle have invested heavily in AI-related capacity, making continued demand growth an important part of their investment outlook.
AI Price War Could Change the Market
Eisman suggested that rapid market-share gains by lower-cost Chinese models could trigger a broader price war in artificial intelligence.
Such a development could force major AI companies to cut prices in order to remain competitive.
Lower prices could benefit AI users and businesses, but they could also reduce profit margins and weaken revenue expectations throughout the AI ecosystem.
This would be particularly important for investors who have valued technology and semiconductor companies on expectations of sustained AI spending growth.
Michael Burry Remains More Bearish on AI
Michael Burry, another investor associated with The Big Short, has taken an even more cautious position toward the artificial intelligence boom.
Burry has questioned whether current AI demand is being generated primarily by end customers or whether part of the spending is supported by financial arrangements between companies within the AI ecosystem.
His concerns focus on whether the current level of investment can remain sustainable over the long term.
Burry Bets Against Nvidia and Semiconductors
Burry has also disclosed bearish positions connected to Nvidia and the wider semiconductor industry.
Nvidia has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI investment boom because of strong demand for its advanced computing chips.
Any slowdown in AI infrastructure spending, increased competition or pressure on AI company economics could therefore have broader consequences for semiconductor stocks.
China Becomes a Key Risk for AI Investors
Eisman’s comments highlight an important question for investors: whether today’s AI leaders can maintain their competitive advantage as cheaper alternatives become more capable.
For now, companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic remain central to the growth of the broader AI ecosystem.
However, if Chinese models continue gaining market share and force prices lower, the economics of the AI boom could begin to change.
That makes competition from China, AI pricing and cloud spending increasingly important factors for investors watching technology and semiconductor stocks.
