TD Cowen has initiated coverage of SpaceX with a Buy rating and a $200 price target, highlighting artificial intelligence and space infrastructure as major long-term growth opportunities.
In a note released Tuesday, the firm said AI computing leases could become an important driver of SpaceX revenue in the near term. Over time, TD Cowen expects the company to benefit from a much broader range of AI and space-related opportunities.
Analyst John Blackledge said SpaceX’s long-term growth profile could increasingly reflect opportunities across both industries, although some of them may take longer to make a meaningful contribution to earnings.
AI Computing Could Become SpaceX’s Largest Business
TD Cowen expects SpaceX’s terrestrial AI computing operation to become its fastest-growing source of revenue.
The business already counts major technology companies such as Google and Anthropic among its customers. According to TD Cowen’s projections, AI computing could become SpaceX’s largest revenue segment by the first quarter of 2027.
The firm estimates that AI compute leasing revenue could reach approximately $14 billion in 2026, representing around 35% of total SpaceX revenue.
That figure could climb to roughly $66 billion in 2027, or about 58% of total revenue, before rising to $133 billion in 2028. By then, AI computing could account for around 65% of the company’s overall revenue.
TD Cowen also expects AI compute leasing to generate more than 70% of SpaceX’s incremental revenue growth during 2027 and 2028.
SpaceX AI Capacity Expected to Expand Rapidly
SpaceX’s ground-based computing capacity is also projected to grow significantly over the coming years.
TD Cowen expects capacity to rise from around 2.1 gigawatts this year to 6.0 gigawatts in 2027. By 2031, the firm projects that capacity could reach approximately 22 gigawatts.
Overall, TD Cowen forecasts annual SpaceX revenue growth of around 62% between 2026 and 2031.
The firm also estimates that SpaceX could generate approximately $297 billion in EBITDA by 2031 if its growth projections materialize.
Starlink Subscriber Growth Remains a Major Opportunity
Starlink is another important part of TD Cowen’s long-term SpaceX outlook.
The firm expects Starlink to reach around 107 million consumer subscribers worldwide by 2031. Of those, approximately 10 million could be located in the United States.
However, TD Cowen believes enterprise and government connectivity could ultimately offer an even more attractive growth opportunity than the consumer market.
SpaceX Launch Capacity Could Strengthen Its Competitive Advantage
TD Cowen also highlighted SpaceX’s ability to transport large amounts of cargo into low Earth orbit as a major competitive advantage.
Blackledge argued that competing companies may struggle to match SpaceX’s low-Earth-orbit launch capacity for many years.
The firm expects SpaceX launches to approach 1,000 per year by 2031, further strengthening the company’s position across satellite infrastructure, communications and space-based services.
Combined with its growing AI computing business, Starlink network and launch capabilities, TD Cowen believes SpaceX could have several major growth engines supporting its expansion through the next decade.
