Adidas Shares Drop After Operating Profit Outlook Misses Expectations
Adidas announced on Wednesday that it expects operating profit of around €2.3 billion ($2.7 billion) this year, falling short of analysts’ consensus estimate of €2.72 billion, according to Visible Alpha data.
The guidance reflects mounting pressures from U.S. tariffs and currency fluctuations, which together are expected to create roughly €400 million in financial headwinds. Analysts say the outlook suggests notable earnings downgrades compared with previous expectations.
Following the announcement, Adidas shares dropped about 7% by 08:59 GMT.
Adidas Forecasts Strong Revenue Growth
Despite the weaker profit outlook, the German sportswear company expects currency-neutral revenue to grow at a high-single-digit rate in 2026, adding approximately €2 billion in additional sales.
Growth is expected to be driven mainly by North America and Greater China, where Adidas forecasts low double-digit revenue expansion.
Looking further ahead, Adidas expects currency-neutral net sales to continue growing at a high-single-digit pace in both 2027 and 2028. Over the 2026–2028 period, the company anticipates operating profit to rise at a mid-teens compound annual growth rate.
Dividend Increase and Leadership Changes
Adidas also proposed raising its dividend by 40% to €2.80 per share for the year.
In addition, the company announced a leadership change, revealing plans to appoint Nassef Sawiris as chairman. Meanwhile, CEO Bjorn Gulden’s contract has been extended through 2030, reinforcing management continuity.
Analysts React to Adidas Profit Guidance
RBC Capital Markets warned that the company’s outlook could disappoint investors. Analyst Piral Dadhania noted that the €2.3 billion operating profit guidance implies roughly a 15% downgrade to consensus earnings.
He also pointed out that the implied operating margin of around 8.5% to 8.8% falls below Adidas’ mid-term target of 10%.
However, Dadhania added that Adidas’ mid-term guidance for high-single-digit revenue growth and mid-teens EBIT growth between 2026 and 2028 could still support a gradual improvement in margins over time, even though the path to the 10% target appears delayed.
CEO Contract Extension Seen as Positive Signal
Analysts also viewed the extension of Bjorn Gulden’s contract as a reassuring move for investors.
Dadhania highlighted that Gulden brings extensive experience and deep knowledge of the global sporting goods industry, which could help support Adidas’ long-term growth strategy.
Morgan Stanley analysts also noted that since Gulden became CEO, Adidas has consistently delivered results above its initial yearly profit guidance.
For example, the company originally projected €1.7–€1.8 billion in operating profit for 2025, but ultimately reported €2.06 billion in EBIT, significantly outperforming expectations.
Strong Performance in 2025
Adidas delivered solid financial growth in 2025, with the Adidas brand posting 13% currency-neutral revenue growth and reaching record sales of €24.8 billion.
The growth was broad-based, with double-digit increases across all regions and sales channels.
Profitability also improved during the year. Gross margin increased by 0.8 percentage points to 51.6%, while operating profit surged 54% to €2.06 billion, pushing the operating margin up to 8.3%.
Meanwhile, net income from continuing operations climbed nearly 70% to €1.38 billion.
Adidas Q4 Results Show Strong Momentum
In the fourth quarter, Adidas reported 11% currency-neutral sales growth, bringing quarterly revenue to €6.1 billion.
The company’s direct-to-consumer segment performed particularly well, with double-digit growth across all global regions.
Gross margin also improved, rising 1 percentage point to 50.8%, while operating profit more than doubled to €164 million during the quarter.
