Nvidia is widely expected to post another quarter of strong revenue growth and issue upbeat guidance when it reports earnings later today. Analysts point to accelerating demand for AI infrastructure, increasing shipments of next-generation chips, and sustained momentum in data centre investment.
Shares of the chipmaker rose 1.6% in early New York trading ahead of the results.
Analysts expect continued AI-driven growth
Stifel analyst Ruben Roy said his fiscal fourth-quarter expectations remain largely unchanged from three months ago. He described Nvidia’s current trajectory as a “well-understood demand acceleration story,” balanced against longer-term questions about the durability of AI infrastructure spending.
Stifel continues to hold a bullish stance, arguing that Nvidia is still in the early stages of what could be a multi-year investment cycle in artificial intelligence infrastructure. Roy noted that discussions with management at CES and rising capital expenditure forecasts from hyperscalers for 2026 suggest revenue estimates could move higher following the fourth-quarter report.
Revenue forecasts and Blackwell ramp-up
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh projects fourth-quarter revenue of $69 billion and first-quarter guidance in the range of $74 billion to $75 billion. He attributes the optimism to the ramp-up of Blackwell B300 and GB300 shipments, which command higher average selling prices.
Vinh estimates that shipments of China-bound H200 chips could contribute between $3 billion and $3.5 billion in the current quarter, with an additional $2 billion to $3 billion expected in the April quarter. He also forecasts sequential growth of 24% in data centre revenue and 27% in compute revenue. However, he cautioned that GDDR memory shortages could pressure the gaming segment.
Market strategists see strong fundamentals
Peter Corey, Chief Market Strategist at Pave Finance, said recent channel checks indicate broadly positive demand trends. While DRAM shortages and power constraints remain potential headwinds, current data does not suggest these issues are materially limiting end demand.
Corey added that if Nvidia delivers strong results but broader markets—particularly KKR, BLK, OWL and IGV—continue to weaken, it could signal that investor sentiment is shifting toward risk aversion rather than fundamentals.
Matt Stucky, Chief Portfolio Manager at Northwestern Mutual, noted that consensus estimates for Nvidia’s fourth-quarter revenue currently stand at $65.8 billion, compared with prior company guidance of $65.0 billion at the midpoint. He expects Nvidia to exceed expectations by $2 billion to $3 billion, driven by growth in rack-scale Blackwell systems and a favorable product mix shift toward Blackwell Ultra, which carries 20% to 30% higher pricing than GB200.
Stucky believes this momentum could extend into the first quarter, with guidance potentially reaching at least $74 billion, supported by continued hyperscaler capital spending and expansion of GB300 systems.
Stock range and breakout potential
David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, observed that Nvidia shares have traded within a range of $170 to $195 for several months. Investors are balancing optimism around AI investment returns against concerns over competition and valuation.
He suggested that the upcoming earnings report could act as a catalyst for a breakout. While headline numbers such as revenue and earnings per share will attract initial attention, forward guidance—especially regarding data centre revenue, cloud spending and margins—will likely determine the stock’s next move.
Morrison emphasized that data centre growth, chip demand and hyperscale cloud investment remain key drivers. However, competitive dynamics and profit margins will also play an important role in shaping market reaction.
As the world’s largest company by market capitalization, Nvidia’s results are expected to have broad implications for the wider equity market. Although the stock no longer appears to move higher with the same certainty as before, its earnings will remain a crucial barometer for AI-related investment trends.
