Bitcoin traders are increasingly confident that the leading cryptocurrency could reach $100,000 before the end of the year. This surge in optimism comes after Bitcoin reclaimed the key $90,000 level and as expectations grow that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next month’s FOMC meeting.
Odds of Bitcoin Reaching $100K Jump to 52%
Data from Polymarket shows that traders now assign a 52% probability that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 before year-end. These odds rose more than 17% following BTC’s recent recovery above $90,000.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 for the first time since June, falling to $81,000 amid renewed market fear. However, sentiment quickly improved as expectations of a December rate cut surged.
As previously reported, the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December have climbed to 85%, up from just 30% last week. The shift followed comments from Fed President John Williams, who signaled support for another near-term rate reduction.
The latest PPI inflation report further strengthened the case for a cut, showing that the weakening labor market poses a greater risk than inflation. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s plan to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1 marks a major dovish shift that could open the door to future quantitative easing (QE).
More liquidity in the financial system typically benefits assets like Bitcoin. Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently suggested that the ongoing liquidity squeeze should ease within the next month as the Fed pivots toward more accommodative policy.
Tom Lee Predicts Bitcoin Above $100K Before Year-End
Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, shared a bullish outlook in an interview on CNBC’s Closing Bell. He stated that Bitcoin is on track to finish the year above $100,000, and even suggested the possibility of reaching $126,000 if momentum accelerates.
Lee highlighted that Bitcoin’s biggest price moves historically occur on just 10 days each year — and he believes several of those major moves are still ahead. He also noted that the crypto market appears to be forming a bottom.
Referencing the recent 10/10 crash, Lee explained that the sell-off flushed out excessive leverage, similar to market conditions in 2022. Back then, it took around eight weeks for the market to recover, and he expects a similar rebound this time.
Market analyst Tomas added that the weakening U.S. dollar index (DXY) is another bullish factor for risk assets. He pointed to two main reasons:
- The rising likelihood of dovish economist Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed Chair
- The surge in expectations for a 25 bps rate cut in December
With monetary policy shifting, leverage reset, and strong buy-side sentiment, Bitcoin appears increasingly positioned for a potential year-end run toward the $100K milestone.
