OpenAI’s rapid growth is reshaping the software industry, creating both opportunities and risks for Microsoft, Oracle, and other major players, according to UBS. The bank called OpenAI one of the most influential AI companies today.
ChatGPT has now scaled to more than 700 million users. UBS estimates OpenAI could generate up to $15 billion in revenue in 2025, compared to $3.7 billion in 2024. Media reports also suggest the company secured $40 billion in funding at a $500 billion valuation.
Microsoft and OpenAI partnership
For Microsoft, OpenAI presents both advantages and challenges. A key question is how much of OpenAI’s computing demand will continue to run on Microsoft Azure as rivals like Oracle and CoreWeave expand.
Partnership negotiations over revenue sharing and intellectual property remain ongoing. At the same time, some of OpenAI’s products overlap with Microsoft’s Copilot suite, raising competition concerns.
Oracle’s big bet on OpenAI
Oracle has emerged as a major winner from OpenAI’s growth. UBS noted Oracle’s projection of $30 billion in revenue from a single customer in fiscal 2028—widely believed to be OpenAI. This makes the AI firm both a powerful growth driver and a potential source of margin pressure for Oracle.
Broader market impact
OpenAI’s massive demand for GPUs continues to benefit Nvidia, while Google faces stronger competition in both search and AI models.
UBS added that OpenAI’s advancements are boosting infrastructure and data-focused companies but pressuring SaaS and application software providers, which now face the risk of new AI-powered rivals.
OpenAI’s expansion has become a market-wide driver. Its growth is fueling huge capital spending in cloud, data centers, and chipmakers. However, with billions in projected annual losses, the sustainability of the AI trade depends heavily on OpenAI maintaining momentum.
