Oppenheimer Becomes First Wall Street Firm to Launch SpaceX Coverage
Oppenheimer has become the first major global brokerage to initiate research coverage on SpaceX ahead of the company’s highly anticipated stock market debut. The move comes just before the Elon Musk-led aerospace and artificial intelligence company is expected to launch a historic $75 billion initial public offering (IPO).
The brokerage assigned an Outperform rating to SpaceX and established a price target of $190 per share, suggesting potential upside of nearly 41% from the company’s IPO price of $135.
Oppenheimer Sees $2.5 Trillion Market Value Potential
Based on its $190 price target, Oppenheimer believes SpaceX could reach a market capitalization of approximately $2.5 trillion within the next 12 to 18 months.
The company is currently targeting an IPO valuation of around $1.75 trillion, making it one of the largest public offerings in history.
According to Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan, SpaceX stands apart from competitors due to its unique combination of artificial intelligence capabilities, infrastructure, engineering talent, manufacturing expertise, and access to capital.
Horan described SpaceX as the only fully vertically integrated AI company capable of combining data, large language models, hardware, engineering resources, and large-scale manufacturing under one ecosystem.
Starlink and AI Expected to Drive Future Growth
Oppenheimer expects Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet business, to remain the company’s primary cash-generating operation in the near term.
However, the brokerage believes the company’s artificial intelligence segment, including xAI, could eventually become its largest source of growth and value creation.
The growing importance of AI infrastructure and computing power has increased investor interest in SpaceX’s broader technology ecosystem beyond its space exploration business.
Possible Tesla Connection Remains on the Table
Horan also suggested that a future merger between SpaceX and Tesla remains a plausible scenario.
However, he expects both companies to continue operating as a closely connected ecosystem rather than pursuing a full merger in the near future. Such a structure would allow both businesses to maintain independent access to capital markets while benefiting from strategic collaboration.
New Street Research Also Turns Positive
Oppenheimer was not the only Wall Street firm expressing optimism about SpaceX.
Shortly after Oppenheimer initiated coverage, New Street Research also launched coverage of the stock with a 12-month price target of $165 per share, signaling confidence in the company’s long-term prospects.
Some Analysts Remain Skeptical
Despite growing enthusiasm surrounding the IPO, not all analysts agree with SpaceX’s ambitious valuation targets.
Earlier this month, analysts at Morningstar estimated the company’s fair value at approximately $780 billion, less than half of the valuation SpaceX is reportedly seeking through its public offering.
Morningstar cited uncertainty surrounding the future growth potential of SpaceX’s AI-related businesses, including xAI and the social media platform X, as key reasons for its more conservative assessment.
Strong Retail Demand Could Support Shares
Unlike IPO underwriters, which are generally restricted by post-listing quiet period regulations, independent brokerages can publish research shortly before or immediately after a company’s stock market debut.
Major financial institutions including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are among the lead underwriters participating in the SpaceX IPO.
Looking ahead, Oppenheimer expects strong demand for SpaceX shares after the company begins trading. The firm believes a combination of broad retail investor interest and accelerated inclusion in major stock indexes could create a significant demand-supply imbalance, potentially supporting the stock price in the months following its market debut.
