Goldman Sachs says Persian Gulf oil exports have returned to levels seen last year. However, crude oil prices remain elevated as geopolitical and supply risks continue to add a substantial premium to the market.
Goldman Sachs analyst Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby explained that the recovery in regional exports has not been enough to push oil prices significantly lower.
Persian Gulf Oil Exports Recover
According to Goldman Sachs, Persian Gulf oil exports, including so-called dark exports, reached about 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week.
That level is broadly in line with the average recorded during 2025.
Grigsby noted that exports roughly doubled during September, marking a sharp recovery in regional oil flows.
The rebound came despite several disruptions affecting major producers.
An attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline interrupted flows for nearly two weeks. At the same time, the Houthi blockade continued to restrict Saudi exports through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Despite those challenges, higher shipments through the Strait of Hormuz helped compensate for the disruption.
Ship-to-ship transfers also contributed to the increase in export volumes.
Crude Oil Drives Most of the Export Recovery
Goldman Sachs estimates that crude oil accounted for almost 90% of the September recovery in Persian Gulf exports.
Crude exports reached approximately 19 million barrels per day during the latest week. That represents around 108% of the region’s 2025 average.
Saudi Arabia played a major role in the rebound.
Saudi oil exports more than doubled during September, reaching 11.6 million barrels per day.
The United Arab Emirates also exported volumes above its 2025 average.
Meanwhile, satellite data reportedly showed no seaborne exports of crude oil or major refined products from Iran during September.
Global Oil Market Was Roughly Balanced
Goldman Sachs estimates that the global oil market was close to balanced during September.
Despite the recovery in Persian Gulf exports, the bank expects oil prices to remain relatively elevated in the near term.
Goldman forecasts Brent crude at around $85 per barrel by the end of the year. It then expects the benchmark to ease further toward approximately $80 per barrel in 2027.
Why Are Oil Prices Still So High?
The main question is why physical crude prices remain so elevated even as Middle East oil exports recover.
Dated Brent has remained close to $120 per barrel, according to Goldman Sachs.
The bank believes a large geopolitical risk premium is still embedded in oil prices.
One major concern is the possibility of further escalation that could threaten long-term oil production and future supply.
Markets are also dealing with exceptionally low global oil inventories outside OECD commercial stocks.
Those low stock levels make the market more sensitive to potential supply disruptions.
As a result, traders and buyers may be willing to pay higher prices to rebuild inventories quickly while geopolitical risks remain elevated.
Supply Risk Continues to Support Oil Prices
The recovery in Persian Gulf exports suggests that physical oil flows have improved significantly.
However, the market is not pricing current supply conditions alone.
Investors are also considering the possibility of renewed disruptions, escalation across the Middle East, and the limited cushion provided by low global inventories.
This helps explain why oil prices and Brent futures can remain high even when current export volumes appear relatively strong.
For now, the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, low inventories, and concerns over future supply remains an important source of support for crude oil prices.
