Goldman Sachs Maintains Copper Price Forecast for 2026
Goldman Sachs on Tuesday reaffirmed its outlook for copper, projecting the metal to average $12,650 per metric ton this year. The bank also maintained its forecast of a 490,000-ton global copper surplus in 2026.
Supply Risks Emerge from Sulphuric Acid Shortages
Despite the stable price outlook, Goldman Sachs highlighted growing risks to copper supply. Ongoing disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could lead to shortages of sulphuric acid, a critical component in copper production.
These risks are compounded by China’s decision to ban sulphuric acid exports starting May 1, which could further tighten supply in an already sensitive market.
Critical Role of Sulphur in Copper Production
Sulphur and sulphuric acid are essential inputs in solvent extraction and electrowinning processes, which together account for approximately 17% of global copper supply. Any disruption to these materials could have significant downstream effects on production levels.
Key Producing Countries Most Exposed
Goldman Sachs identified the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile as the most vulnerable to disruptions in sulphur supply chains. Both countries rely heavily on consistent access to these inputs to sustain copper output.
The ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran has already impacted the flow of energy and raw materials, as Iran has effectively restricted access through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global shipping route.
Geopolitical Tensions Add to Market Uncertainty
President Donald Trump stated that he does not intend to extend the current ceasefire, adding that the U.S. military is prepared to act if negotiations fail. This escalation risk continues to weigh on global commodity markets.
Potential Production Cuts in the DRC
Mining companies in the Democratic Republic of the Congo currently hold two to three months of sulphuric acid inventory. However, if supply disruptions persist beyond late May into June, Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 125,000 tons of copper production could be reduced in 2026.
This potential supply cut could be partially offset by a projected decline in demand of around 140,000 tons, driven by weaker global economic growth in a downside scenario.
Chile Faces Additional Supply Pressure
China’s export ban on sulphuric acid could also impact Chile significantly. Goldman Sachs estimates that up to 200,000 tons of Chilean copper production—around 1% of global supply—could be at risk, given that Chile sourced roughly one-third of its sulphuric acid from China in 2025.
