Oil Prices Climb Amid Escalating Iran Conflict and U.S. Troop Deployment
Oil prices rose sharply on Friday, gaining around 1% in volatile trading as the U.S.-Israel–Iran conflict shows no signs of slowing. The U.S. plans to send thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in the coming weeks, adding to supply concerns.
Brent crude for May delivery rose 91 cents, or 1%, to $109.64 per barrel as of 12:11 p.m. EDT (16:11 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) April futures, expiring Friday, climbed $1.29, or 1.3%, to $97.43, while May WTI futures were up 1.5% at $97.05.
Escalation in Middle East Energy Infrastructure
The ongoing conflict intensified this week, with attacks on Iran’s key energy facilities and retaliatory strikes on neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait.
Although President Donald Trump stated that Israel would not repeat attacks on energy sites, the market is pricing in extended supply disruptions. Analysts expect several weeks before the crucial Strait of Hormuz is fully reopened.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, commented: “The potential for a quick reversal in energy prices is unlikely because damage has been done to production.”
Weekly Market Performance
Brent is on track to gain about 6% for the week, while front-month WTI is down roughly 1.3% from last Friday. The WTI discount to Brent reached its widest level in 11 years on Wednesday.
U.S. Military Reinforcements
Three U.S. officials confirmed that thousands of additional Marines and sailors will be deployed to the Middle East, with departures from the U.S. planned about three weeks ahead of schedule.
President Trump also reiterated that no Iranian leaders remain to negotiate, emphasizing continued military pressure and reaffirming U.S. demands that Iran remain free of nuclear weapons. Israel and Iran exchanged further attacks on Friday, following a strike on a Kuwaiti oil refinery.
Strategic Oil Reserve Plans
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that lifting oil sanctions on stranded Iranian cargoes could get crude to Asia within three to four days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously indicated that additional releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve might also take place over the next few months.
Strait of Hormuz Remains Key Risk
Analysts warn that oil prices will stay elevated as long as Strait of Hormuz traffic is disrupted. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo noted: “As long as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, the path of least resistance for crude prices remains to the upside.”
International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol warned that restoring oil and gas flows from the Gulf could take up to six months, a disruption longer than many politicians and market participants anticipate.
Plans under consideration by the Trump administration to occupy or blockade Iran’s Kharg Island could further pressure oil supply, according to Axios.
Brent surged past $119 per barrel on Thursday, approaching the March 9 peak, after Iran’s response to Israeli attacks disabled 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity—damage projected to take up to five years to repair.
