Bitcoin Holds Near $72K After Crypto Market Rally
Bitcoin traded around $72,000 on Thursday, marking the first time in nearly a month that the world’s largest cryptocurrency has maintained levels above that threshold. The move follows a broad cryptocurrency market rally that lifted digital assets and crypto-related stocks in the previous session.
Bitcoin surged more than 6% on Wednesday, recovering after spending several weeks trading below $70,000. The recent rebound has brought the cryptocurrency closer to regaining its role as a potential geopolitical hedge, particularly as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.
Institutional Demand Drives Bitcoin ETF Inflows
Part of the recent rally has been fueled by renewed institutional interest in Bitcoin. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) attracted approximately $1.1 billion in net inflows over three trading sessions from March 2 to March 4, according to data from ETF trackers including Farside Investors and CoinGlass.
These inflows represent a shift in sentiment after several weeks of outflows earlier this year. On March 4 alone, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $461.9 million in net inflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF accounting for about $306.6 million of the total, based on CoinGlass figures.
Bitcoin’s Recent Downtrend and Market Cycle
Despite the current rebound, Bitcoin experienced five consecutive months of declines from October through February, marking its longest losing streak in recent years.
Following this downturn, Investing.com spoke with Michael Terpin, a U.S. entrepreneur and cryptocurrency investor often referred to as the “Godfather of Crypto,” to discuss the key factors currently influencing the market and the possible outlook for Bitcoin in the coming months.
Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Still in Play
Terpin believes that Bitcoin’s price movements remain largely driven by the cryptocurrency’s four-year market cycle, which historically follows the Bitcoin halving event.
According to Terpin, each cycle has followed a similar pattern. Bitcoin typically reaches a new all-time high within about seven months after a halving, followed by a speculative bubble that peaks roughly 11 months later. After the peak, the market tends to enter a gradual and often painful correction, with the final capitulation occurring about a year afterward.
While macroeconomic factors can influence short-term movements, Terpin argues that they mainly affect the size of the peak rather than the ultimate bottom. Historically, major market bottoms have been triggered by large institutional failures or crises, such as the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014 or FTX in 2022.
Institutional Investors and Bitcoin ETFs
Bitcoin ETFs were a major driver of demand earlier in the current cycle, and institutional participation remains an important factor.
Terpin noted that some ETF investors have behaved similarly to early retail traders, selling near market peaks. However, he also pointed out that professional traders and institutional investors, including large entities such as Harvard, are using ETFs to gain exposure to Bitcoin.
This growing institutional presence could help prevent the type of panic selling typically seen at market bottoms during previous cycles.
Could Bitcoin Fall Toward $50K?
Bitcoin fell roughly 15% in February, extending its longest streak of monthly losses in years. While March has historically produced positive returns during previous cycles, Terpin believes the current correction may not be over.
He expects April could bring additional downside, with the final low of the correction potentially reaching around 60% below the previous cycle peak.
Under that scenario, Bitcoin could experience a capitulation event near $50,000 before the market stabilizes.
Bitcoin Outlook for the Rest of the Decade
Looking ahead, Terpin believes the most likely path for Bitcoin in the near term involves further volatility and lower lows before a major bottom forms.
He estimates that Bitcoin could trade between $80,000 and $100,000 by the end of the year, but a rapid recovery is unlikely immediately after capitulation.
Over the longer term, the outlook remains more optimistic. Terpin expects strong gains in the late 2020s as the next crypto bull market cycle develops.
In a scenario where demand surges and investor enthusiasm returns, Bitcoin could eventually climb above $300,000 or even $400,000 during a future bull run. He also maintains a long-term prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2037, although the path to that milestone will likely involve significant volatility along the way.
