Could AI Shopping Agents Disrupt Visa and Mastercard?
Concerns are increasing that artificial intelligence shopping agents could eventually reduce the influence of major card networks such as Visa and Mastercard, although the long-term impact on their business models remains uncertain. According to analysts at Evercore, the payments industry could face gradual changes as AI-driven commerce evolves.
What Is Agentic Commerce?
The concept known as agentic commerce refers to situations where AI assistants make purchases automatically on behalf of consumers. These AI systems can also select the payment method themselves, potentially shifting control away from traditional checkout pages.
In this scenario, software platforms could prioritize lower transaction fees or faster payment settlement, which may allow merchants or AI agents to redirect payments toward alternatives rather than traditional card payment networks.
Could AI Bypass Card Networks?
In the most extreme case, AI systems might process transactions directly between buyers and sellers using stablecoins or alternative payment rails. Such a shift could reduce the role of card networks in the global payments ecosystem and gradually weaken their pricing power.
However, Evercore analysts believe this outcome would require major changes across the entire payments infrastructure. These changes could include merchant approval for automated purchasing, shifts in consumer payment behavior, new legal frameworks for liability, and broader acceptance of alternative payment technologies.
For now, these obstacles remain significant, particularly in developed markets.
Investor Concerns About AI Disruption
Even though large structural changes may take time, the growth of AI-powered shopping tools has already affected investor sentiment toward the card networks. Uncertainty about potential disruption has recently put pressure on the valuation multiples of Visa and Mastercard.
Despite these concerns, Evercore takes a more balanced view. The firm believes that while AI agents could increase the ability of merchants or digital platforms to steer payments toward cheaper alternatives, any major transition away from card payments is likely to happen gradually.
Visa and Mastercard May Adapt to AI Commerce
Several factors could slow the shift away from traditional card payments. These include consumer habits, merchant incentives, trust in existing payment systems, and legal frameworks governing financial transactions.
In the near term, analysts expect the main battle in AI-driven commerce to focus on which companies control the customer interface and how payment options are optimized, rather than a rapid replacement of card networks.
Visa and Mastercard may also continue playing a key role by offering essential services such as tokenization, payment security, identity verification, and settlement infrastructure. These capabilities could allow them to remain integral to the next generation of digital commerce, even as AI technology reshapes online shopping.
