Morningstar Values SpaceX at $780 Billion Ahead of Highly Anticipated IPO

Morningstar analysts have assigned a $780 billion valuation to SpaceX, significantly below the $1.75 trillion valuation target reportedly sought by the company ahead of its upcoming initial public offering.

The assessment arrives just days before SpaceX is expected to begin its IPO roadshow on June 4, with shares scheduled to start trading on the Nasdaq on June 12.

Morningstar Questions AI Business Potential

A major factor behind Morningstar’s more conservative valuation is uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s artificial intelligence operations, which include xAI and the social media platform X.

According to Morningstar equity analyst Nicolas Owens, the economics of these businesses remain difficult to assess, while competition from industry leaders such as OpenAI and Anthropic continues to intensify.

Owens noted that xAI’s chatbot, Grok, is not currently viewed as one of the leading AI platforms in the market, raising questions about its long-term competitive position.

Concerns Over Future Technologies

Morningstar also highlighted concerns regarding the future growth assumptions embedded in SpaceX’s valuation.

The firm pointed to emerging technologies such as orbital data centers, which remain largely untested and could face significant execution risks. Additionally, Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite internet division, continues to face technological and operational challenges, some of which may be beyond the company’s direct control.

As a result, Morningstar believes investors may be overestimating the company’s current worth.

“We think the company has been significantly overvalued and investors will have opportunities to buy the stock at more attractive levels after the IPO,” Owens stated.

Strong IPO Demand Could Support Shares

Despite its valuation concerns, Morningstar acknowledged that SpaceX shares could perform well shortly after listing.

The firm cited the expected low public float and the involvement of several major Wall Street banks as factors that could support strong investor demand during the initial stages of trading.

The underwriting syndicate includes Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BofA Securities, Citigroup, and J.P. Morgan, providing significant institutional backing for the offering.

Long-Term Investors May Find Better Entry Points

Morningstar believes investors interested in SpaceX’s long-term growth story may benefit from waiting for more attractive opportunities after the IPO.

According to Owens, investors seeking exposure to the company’s future projects and potential technological breakthroughs could eventually gain access to the stock with a larger margin of safety than the initial offering is likely to provide.

SpaceX Valuation Gap Remains Significant

Morningstar’s $780 billion valuation stands well below both the company’s IPO target of $1.75 trillion and its most recent secondary-market valuation.

SpaceX was last valued at approximately $1.53 trillion on secondary trading platform Forge Global, highlighting the considerable difference between Morningstar’s assessment and current market expectations.

As investors prepare for one of the most closely watched IPOs in recent history, the debate over SpaceX’s true value is expected to remain a major focus in the weeks ahead.