Several major Wall Street banks have started coverage of Space Exploration Technologies, with price targets ranging from $190 to $300.
The wide range reflects different views on how much value should be assigned to SpaceX’s AI, satellite, launch, and connectivity businesses.
Nasdaq 100 Inclusion Could Trigger Passive Buying
The new analyst coverage comes just before SpaceX is added to the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday.
The inclusion is expected to bring a wave of passive buying from funds that track the index.
JPMorgan estimated last month that the Nasdaq 100 addition could bring around $4.3 billion into SpaceX shares from passive investment funds.
One of the Fastest Index Additions on Record
SpaceX’s index entry follows its June 12 stock market debut.
The speed of the inclusion makes it one of the fastest entries into a major benchmark index on record.
This was made possible by Nasdaq’s updated rules for newly listed companies seeking entry into widely followed indexes.
Despite the upcoming index inclusion, SpaceX shares were down more than 6% by 10:49 ET.
Morgan Stanley Sets Highest SpaceX Price Target
Morgan Stanley gave SpaceX the highest price target among the banks.
The firm started coverage with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. It also outlined a wide range of possible outcomes, with a $75 bear case and a $600 bull case.
Analysts led by Adam Jonas described SpaceX as holding a unique position in space infrastructure.
They also argued that investors may be underestimating the company’s data-center economics on Earth, where costs are estimated to be about half the industry average.
However, Morgan Stanley also warned that SpaceX may need major outside funding. The firm expects the company to require about $84 billion a year in external capital from 2027 through 2034 before reaching positive free cash flow.
RBC Highlights Compute and Starship Catalysts
RBC started coverage of SpaceX with an Outperform rating and a $225 price target.
The target is based on around 15 times the firm’s 2029 EBITDA estimate.
RBC’s bullish view is centered on compute as a long-term competitive advantage. The firm argued that AI models and applications may change over time, but demand for compute should remain strong.
RBC also highlighted Starship’s flight-test schedule as the most important near-term catalyst for the stock.
Other key catalysts include the pending Cursor acquisition and the rollout of Starlink’s next-generation V3 satellites.
Stifel Focuses on Launch Economics
Stifel also started coverage with a Buy rating, but its $190 price target was the lowest among the group.
The firm’s thesis is based on SpaceX’s launch cost advantage.
Stifel said that the company with the lowest cost to orbit is likely to control many of the opportunities above it.
The firm credited Falcon 9’s reusable rocket design with reducing launch costs to about $3,000 per kilogram. According to Stifel, no competitor has matched that level.
However, the firm applied a lower valuation multiple to SpaceX’s AI segment. It cited execution risks around orbital data centers, which have not yet been proven at commercial scale.
UBS Sees Huge Long-Term Opportunity
UBS started coverage with a Buy rating and a $210 price target.
The bank estimated that SpaceX’s combined launch, connectivity, and AI opportunity could be worth nearly $30 trillion if Starship performs as expected.
UBS forecast revenue and EBITDA to grow at annual rates of around 70% and 90%, respectively, through 2031.
The bank also expects launch costs to fall to about $200 per kilogram, down from around $1,000 today.
UBS described SpaceX shares as giving investors a potential upside option on Elon Musk’s long-term plan to make life multiplanetary. However, the bank did not include that scenario in its base-case valuation.
SpaceX Shares Remain Above IPO Price
The new coverage comes less than a month after SpaceX’s Nasdaq debut.
The company priced its IPO at $135 per share on June 12 and raised about $86 billion. That made it the largest public offering on record.
SpaceX shares have continued to trade above the IPO price. The stock closed Monday at $160.42, although it remains below the roughly $225 high reached during its first weeks of trading.
