Citi has started coverage of Space Exploration Technologies with a Buy rating and a $200 price target.
The target suggests about 25% upside by the end of the year. However, Citi also said SpaceX could have a longer-term path toward a valuation of more than $900 per share.
Citi Sees $200 as a Step Toward Bigger Upside
According to Citi, the $200 price target is only an early milestone.
The bank said a move toward $900+ could become realistic if SpaceX proves that its key engineering achievements can work at scale.
Citi believes Starship is central to this outlook. A successful Starship deployment could give SpaceX the most affordable and scalable way to unlock the commercial potential of space.
Starship Could Open Trillion-Dollar Markets
Citi analysts said Starship could give SpaceX access to trillion-dollar markets that few, if any, competitors can realistically reach.
The bank believes SpaceX is entering a very important two-to-three-year period filled with major catalysts.
During this period, Citi expects the company to build dominant positions in several high-value markets, especially connectivity and artificial intelligence.
Nasdaq 100 Inclusion Could Trigger Passive Buying
Citi’s bullish coverage comes ahead of SpaceX’s expected inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index on Tuesday.
The move could create strong passive buying demand from funds that track the index.
Several Wall Street firms have recently started covering the rocket and satellite company, which is now valued at more than $2 trillion. Most of those outlooks have been positive.
JPMorgan estimated last month that SpaceX’s Nasdaq 100 inclusion could bring about $4.3 billion of passive fund inflows into the stock.
Citi Highlights SpaceX’s Launch Advantage
Citi’s positive view is based largely on what it sees as SpaceX’s unmatched launch capabilities.
The bank believes these advantages could last for the foreseeable future. This would allow SpaceX to scale space infrastructure faster and cheaper than competitors.
Citi also sees two major growth opportunities for the company.
The first is a global telecom business powered by satellite connectivity. The second is an AI business that could include both enterprise AI and orbital AI applications.
Vertical Integration Strengthens the Bull Case
Citi also highlighted SpaceX’s extreme vertical integration as a major advantage.
The bank said this structure helps SpaceX reduce costs, increase production speed, and operate at a scale that rivals may struggle to match.
This could make SpaceX more efficient across launch, satellites, connectivity, and future space-based infrastructure.
How Citi Reaches Its SpaceX Valuation
Citi’s $200 price target for the end of 2026 is based on an average of three valuation methods.
Its longer-term $900+ valuation case is based on a broader framework. This model assumes SpaceX can maintain unusually strong growth rates even at a very large scale.
Under that scenario, Citi believes SpaceX could continue trading at a premium compared with other trillion-dollar companies.
Key Risks Remain for SpaceX
Despite the bullish outlook, Citi also warned that several risks could challenge its thesis.
These include technology risks, manufacturing risks, operating execution, and regulatory pressure across SpaceX’s different business areas.
For now, Citi sees SpaceX as one of the most important growth stories in the market. But the path to a $900+ valuation depends on major engineering, commercial, and regulatory milestones being achieved.
