SpaceX could face costs ranging from $50 billion to $130 billion if it decides to build a standalone terrestrial network for its direct-to-device mobile business, according to Bernstein analysts.
The estimate includes spectrum costs and highlights one of the most challenging parts of SpaceX’s wider satellite and communications strategy.
Bernstein Remains Positive on SpaceX
Despite concerns over the cost of building a terrestrial mobile network, Bernstein analysts remain optimistic about SpaceX’s broader business outlook.
The firm continues to see strong opportunities across rocket launches, orbital data centers, and Starlink broadband services for consumers, businesses, and government customers.
Analysts led by Douglas Harned said these businesses support their positive long-term view of SpaceX.
However, Bernstein described the direct-to-device mobile segment as one of the company’s most difficult opportunities.
SpaceX Plans Mobile V2 Satellite Launches
SpaceX is expected to begin launching its Mobile V2 satellite constellation using Starship in mid-2027.
Bernstein estimates that building the terrestrial infrastructure alone could cost between roughly $15 billion and $80 billion before spectrum expenses are included.
Depending on the final network design, SpaceX could require between 30,000 and 120,000 macro cell sites.
Network Quality Could Determine the Final Cost
According to Bernstein, the final cost will depend heavily on how aggressively SpaceX wants to compete with established mobile carriers.
A basic network would require far less infrastructure than one designed to offer coverage and performance comparable with major telecom companies.
Another important factor is whether SpaceX acquires 10 MHz of low-band spectrum that Grain is expected to auction.
Low-band spectrum could help SpaceX provide wider coverage while reducing the number of terrestrial sites needed.
Musk Denies Report About Grain Spectrum
Elon Musk responded “not true” to a Bloomberg report claiming SpaceX was considering the purchase of Grain’s spectrum.
However, Bernstein analysts believe a deal should not be completely ruled out.
AST SpaceMobile has also shown interest in the spectrum. The company received temporary approval from the Federal Communications Commission in August to test supplementary coverage using those frequencies.
Bernstein Models Several SpaceX Network Scenarios
Bernstein analyzed six possible network configurations based on spectrum availability and SpaceX’s desired level of competitiveness.
At the lower end, a basic “Metro” network could cover around 70% of the U.S. population. Analysts compared this approach with DISH Network’s buildout.
At the higher end, a “Premium” network would require significantly more infrastructure and could approach the quality offered by established telecom carriers.
Bernstein also examined a middle-ground “National” network similar to Sprint’s historical coverage.
The analysts said this type of network could become a credible option if SpaceX can offer its service at the right price.
SpaceX Mobile Network Could Cost Around $70 Billion
Bernstein’s base-case scenario assumes that SpaceX builds a nationwide network while also acquiring Grain’s low-band spectrum.
Under this model, the company could spend around $70 billion and deploy approximately 57,000 macro sites over an eight-year construction period.
The analysts estimate that acquiring even a relatively small amount of low-band spectrum could reduce the required number of sites by around 30%.
Bernstein described Grain’s holdings as one of the few clearly available sources of low-band spectrum.
Partnership May Still Be SpaceX’s Most Likely Strategy
Despite modeling the cost of a full terrestrial network, Bernstein still believes a partnership with an existing telecom operator is the most likely outcome for SpaceX’s mobile business.
Such an agreement could allow the company to expand direct-to-device services without taking on the enormous cost of building an independent nationwide network.
Still, SpaceX has continued to suggest that constructing its own terrestrial infrastructure remains possible.
That possibility has attracted significant investor attention because of the potential impact on telecom operators, mobile infrastructure companies, and the tower industry.
