Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: META) has reportedly signed contracts for more than 5GW of data center capacity across cloud and colocation providers in the first half of 2026.
Research firm SemiAnalysis believes Meta’s compute expansion is still far from reaching its peak. The firm expects the company’s 2027 capital expenditure to be “shockingly high.”
SemiAnalysis also argued that concerns about Meta hurting neocloud competitors are misplaced.
Neocloud Stocks React to Meta Cloud Concerns
CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV) and Nebius Group NV (NASDAQ: NBIS) are among the publicly traded companies most exposed to this theme.
Both stocks fell more than 6% on July 1 after Bloomberg reported that Meta may launch a cloud business to monetize excess AI computing capacity.
That report sparked fresh fears of overcapacity across the AI infrastructure sector.
However, CoreWeave later traded higher, suggesting investors may be reconsidering those concerns after the SemiAnalysis report.
SemiAnalysis Pushes Back on Bearish View
SemiAnalysis strongly rejected the idea that Meta’s cloud plans would reduce demand for neocloud providers.
The firm said Meta’s data center and compute procurement is likely to accelerate rather than slow down.
According to SemiAnalysis, Meta has signed nearly 10GW of deals since early 2024. Much of this future capacity is expected to come through third-party providers.
The firm believes Meta could become a major source of remaining performance obligation growth for companies such as CoreWeave, Nebius, and other AI infrastructure providers.
Four Key Drivers Behind Meta’s Compute Demand
SemiAnalysis outlined four major use cases that could support Meta’s aggressive spending plans.
The first is Meta Superintelligence Labs, which the firm says remains a key destination for new compute capacity. SemiAnalysis said Meta has not abandoned frontier AI model training.
The second driver is Meta’s plan to scale its advertising recommendation systems by 10 times. This requires major training and inference capacity and has already helped support revenue growth.
Anthropic Deal Could Add More Demand
The third potential driver is a reported agreement with Anthropic.
SemiAnalysis said Meta is in final talks to secure private instances of Claude, similar to Amazon’s Bedrock arrangement.
The firm estimated that the agreement could be structured as a roughly $10 billion compute deal, with 90-day cancellation options on both sides.
However, neither Meta nor Anthropic has officially confirmed the reported talks.
Meta May Explore Premium On-Demand Compute
The fourth use case involves what SemiAnalysis calls “SpaceX-type” on-demand compute deals.
This refers to large-scale compute contracts with premium pricing and flexible short-notice terms.
SemiAnalysis estimated that Meta could generate more than $10 billion per year by allocating just 200MW of capacity to external customers at SpaceX-equivalent pricing.
The firm argued that traditional neocloud providers may struggle to offer this type of flexibility because their financing models often depend on long-term customer commitments.
Oracle Seen as a Cautionary Example
SemiAnalysis identified Oracle Corporation (NYSE: ORCL) as one of the few companies with enough existing compute capacity to support SpaceX-style deals.
However, the firm said Oracle has failed to fully capitalize on that position.
By contrast, SemiAnalysis said Meta is moving quickly to expand its data center footprint. The firm pointed to Meta’s use of ultra-fast “tent” construction designs, which have reportedly spread across the U.S.
Meta Investors Still Watching Capex Closely
Meta shares traded higher during the session, although the stock remained below its 52-week high.
The company’s stock fell sharply after its first-quarter 2026 earnings report on April 29, despite beating expectations.
Meta reported earnings per share of $10.44, compared with estimates of $6.65. Revenue came in at $56.31 billion, also above forecasts.
Even so, investors focused on the company’s elevated capital spending guidance.
Q2 Results Could Be Key
Meta’s next major test comes on July 29, when the company is scheduled to report second-quarter 2026 results.
Analysts currently expect earnings per share of $7.17 on revenue of $60.19 billion.
Investors will be watching closely for updated capex guidance. They will also look for any official comments on cloud monetization or a possible Anthropic partnership.
CoreWeave’s upcoming Q2 results could offer another important signal. Its management commentary may show whether Meta’s growing compute demand is turning into real contract wins for neocloud providers.
