Goldman Says Tesla Q2 Deliveries May Beat Expectations
Tesla’s second-quarter vehicle deliveries could exceed Wall Street expectations, according to Goldman Sachs. The investment bank has raised its forecast ahead of Tesla’s official Q2 2026 delivery report.
Goldman Raises Tesla Delivery Forecast
Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney increased the bank’s Q2 2026 Tesla delivery estimate from 405,000 to 420,000 vehicles.
The revised forecast is also comfortably above the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of approximately 400,000 units.
Delaney said recent weekly and monthly sales figures suggest Tesla deliveries are performing better than expected across several important markets. These include China, Europe and the United States.
European Tesla Sales Show Strong Growth
Europe emerged as one of Tesla’s strongest regions during the second quarter.
According to Goldman Sachs, European vehicle registration data through May indicated year-over-year growth of approximately 85% to 90%.
Early daily registration figures from countries that report June data also pointed to a strong start to the month.
However, part of the increase reflects a favorable comparison with the previous year. Tesla’s European deliveries fell by 29% year over year during the second quarter of 2025, creating a relatively low base for the latest figures.
China and Asia-Pacific Markets Support Deliveries
Tesla also recorded encouraging sales trends in China.
China Passenger Car Association data through May showed high single-digit growth compared with the same period last year.
Other Asia-Pacific markets also delivered positive results. South Korea and Australia reported strong Tesla sales on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis.
This regional strength appears to be helping offset weaker performance in the United States.
US Deliveries Remain Tesla’s Weakest Area
The United States was the only major region where Tesla deliveries continued to struggle.
Motor Intelligence data cited by Goldman Sachs showed that US deliveries through May were down by a mid-teens percentage compared with the previous year.
The decline remains important because the US represents a significant share of Tesla’s global sales.
Goldman estimates that the country accounted for a mid-30% share of Tesla’s total vehicle deliveries in 2025.
China Remains Tesla’s Largest Delivery Market
China represented approximately 38% of Tesla’s deliveries in 2025, making it the company’s largest individual market, according to Goldman Sachs.
The United States followed with a share in the mid-30% range, while Europe accounted for approximately 15%.
Strong growth in China, Europe and other Asia-Pacific markets could therefore place Tesla in a position to surpass current Q2 delivery expectations, despite continued weakness in the US market.
