Morgan Stanley believes Apple’s first foldable iPhone could become a major revenue driver, potentially contributing around $14 billion in the December quarter.
The bank also described the upcoming launch as Apple’s most important iPhone event since the introduction of the iPhone X.
Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Be a Major Launch
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring said Apple’s first foldable iPhone represents the company’s biggest change in iPhone design since the iPhone X.
The device is expected to be unveiled during Apple’s September 9 event.
According to Morgan Stanley, the launch could mark a major turning point for the iPhone lineup and test how much consumers are willing to pay for a significantly different form factor.
Morgan Stanley Expects Strong Early Demand
The bank expects demand for the foldable iPhone to be strong from the start.
Morgan Stanley estimates that Apple could produce around 7 million to 8 million units during the second half of 2026.
Over the first full product cycle, production could reach as many as 20 million devices.
Supply may be tight initially, which could make availability one of the biggest challenges following launch.
Foldable iPhone Could Generate $14 Billion in Revenue
Morgan Stanley estimates that the new foldable iPhone could contribute roughly $14 billion to Apple’s December-quarter revenue.
That would make the device an important new growth driver for the company.
The bank believes the launch could also help Apple strengthen its position in the premium smartphone market, particularly as foldable devices become more popular.
Apple Pricing Power Faces a Major Test
The launch could also test Apple’s ability to raise iPhone prices.
Morgan Stanley expects some of the largest like-for-like iPhone price increases seen in years.
Higher component costs are one of the main reasons behind the expected increases.
In particular, rising NAND and DRAM memory prices could push the cost of Pro models more than $200 higher compared with the previous year.
iPhone 18 Pro Could Focus More on AI Performance
Morgan Stanley also expects the iPhone 18 Pro lineup to receive a major performance upgrade.
One of the key changes could be Apple’s move to chips built on TSMC’s 2-nanometer manufacturing process.
The transition could improve efficiency and support stronger on-device artificial intelligence capabilities.
AI performance is becoming increasingly important as Apple looks to process more tasks directly on the iPhone instead of relying entirely on cloud-based systems.
Component Supply Could Limit Production
Morgan Stanley believes Apple is currently more concerned about securing enough components than finding enough customers.
That suggests the company expects demand to remain strong.
However, memory supply constraints could limit the number of devices Apple is able to manufacture in the near term.
If demand significantly exceeds supply, the foldable iPhone could face long delivery times during its initial launch period.
Apple Event Could Mark a Leadership Transition
The upcoming event could also be notable for Apple’s leadership.
Morgan Stanley expects new CEO John Ternus to lead the presentation instead of Tim Cook.
The event would therefore represent both a major product transition and a symbolic leadership change for Apple.
The bank believes that combination could make the launch one of the most important Apple events in years.
Apple Could Unveil the iPhone Fold or iPhone Ultra
The foldable device is widely expected to be positioned at the top end of Apple’s smartphone lineup.
Morgan Stanley referred to the product as the potential “iPhone Fold” or “iPhone Ultra,” although the final name has not been confirmed.
A premium branding strategy would fit with expectations that the device will carry a significantly higher price than standard iPhone models.
Base iPhone 18 Models May Arrive Later
Morgan Stanley does not expect Apple to launch the standard iPhone 18 or iPhone Air 2 at the same time.
Instead, the bank believes those models could arrive in the spring.
That would give Apple a more staggered launch schedule and allow the foldable iPhone and Pro devices to receive greater attention during the September event.
Foldable iPhone Could Open a New Growth Market for Apple
Apple’s first foldable iPhone could become one of the company’s most significant product launches in years.
Morgan Stanley sees the combination of strong demand, premium pricing, improved AI performance, and a new form factor as a potential multibillion-dollar opportunity.
If Apple can manage component shortages and maintain strong consumer demand, the foldable iPhone could become a major new contributor to revenue and help redefine the company’s premium smartphone strategy.
