European gas prices remained close to their highest levels since late 2022 on Friday, supported by persistent supply concerns and tightening market conditions. Natural gas futures across Europe and the United Kingdom were on track to record a third consecutive weekly increase despite relatively stable trading during the session.
Ongoing disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, reduced Norwegian pipeline supplies, and below-average European gas storage levels continued to support prices.
Meanwhile, forecasts for milder temperatures provided some short-term relief, although traders remained cautious about the approaching winter demand season.
European Gas Prices Extend Weekly Winning Streak
The benchmark Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) front-month natural gas contract traded largely unchanged at €86.10 per megawatt-hour (MWh).
Despite Friday’s limited price movement, the European benchmark was heading for a weekly increase of nearly 6%, marking its third consecutive week of gains.
British wholesale gas prices followed a similar pattern.
The UK’s National Balancing Point (NBP) front-month contract remained near 213.00 pence per therm, putting it on course for a weekly advance of approximately 5.3%.
The sustained gains reflect growing concerns about Europe’s ability to maintain adequate natural gas supplies as winter approaches.
LNG Supply Disruptions Increase Pressure on European Markets
Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remain a major source of uncertainty for global energy markets.
Continued maritime attacks and changing targeting tactics near the strategic waterway have disrupted LNG shipments passing through the Persian Gulf.
As a result, some energy carriers have been forced to take longer and more expensive routes around the Cape of Good Hope.
These alternative shipping routes increase transportation costs and delay deliveries to European LNG import terminals.
The disruptions have also raised concerns about the availability of spot LNG cargoes, particularly as European countries prepare for stronger seasonal energy demand.
With international buyers competing for available shipments, prolonged supply interruptions could keep European natural gas prices elevated.
Norwegian Gas Supply Outages Add to Market Concerns
Supply challenges have also emerged closer to Europe.
Unexpected maintenance outages at Norwegian natural gas facilities reduced pipeline deliveries to several Western European markets earlier in the week.
The disruptions included lower processing capacity at Norway’s Kårstø gas plant, an important facility within the country’s energy infrastructure.
Reduced Norwegian gas flows have increased pressure on European utilities and energy traders seeking alternative supplies.
Consequently, competition for available natural gas has intensified, providing additional support for wholesale prices.
Norway remains a crucial supplier to European energy markets, making unexpected changes in its production and processing capacity particularly important for regional price stability.
EU Gas Storage Levels Fall Below Seasonal Average
Another major concern for the European energy market is the relatively low level of natural gas stored ahead of winter.
European Union underground gas storage facilities were approximately 74% full, considerably below the historical mid-October average of around 86%.
This represents a shortfall of roughly 12 percentage points compared with typical seasonal levels.
Lower storage inventories leave Europe with a smaller supply buffer as households and businesses prepare for increased heating demand.
Although milder weather forecasts helped prevent further price increases on Friday, traders remain concerned about the potential impact of colder temperatures later in October.
A prolonged cold spell could accelerate withdrawals from storage facilities, particularly if LNG deliveries and pipeline supplies remain constrained.
Could European Natural Gas Prices Rise Further?
The outlook for European gas prices remains closely linked to weather conditions, geopolitical developments, and the availability of imported energy supplies.
Further disruptions to LNG shipments through the Persian Gulf could intensify competition for alternative cargoes and push wholesale prices higher.
Additional Norwegian infrastructure outages would create another potential source of upward pressure.
Meanwhile, Europe’s below-average gas storage levels increase the market’s sensitivity to unexpected supply shortages or sudden increases in heating demand.
However, an improvement in LNG shipping conditions, the restoration of Norwegian pipeline capacity, or an extended period of mild weather could help ease market pressure.
For now, European gas prices remain near their highest levels since late 2022, with both Dutch and British benchmarks on course for a third consecutive weekly gain.
As the winter heating season approaches, traders will closely monitor storage inventories, LNG deliveries, Norwegian production, and weather forecasts for indications of the market’s next major move.
