Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could continue climbing over the coming years and potentially reach a seven-figure valuation by 2030. However, despite his bullish Bitcoin outlook, Ethereum is currently his preferred crypto investment because he sees significantly stronger near-term upside.
Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Reaching $1 Million by 2030
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes several major macroeconomic conditions could help push Bitcoin toward $1 million over the next four years.
During a recent appearance on Trade Secrets, Hayes pointed to factors such as a potential collapse in the artificial intelligence investment boom, aggressive monetary expansion, and possible US yield curve control.
In his view, these conditions could create a highly supportive environment for Bitcoin.
Hayes also suggested that Bitcoin’s decline toward $58,000 may have marked an important market bottom. From there, he expects BTC to gradually move higher, even if investor sentiment remains skeptical during the recovery.
His forecast is one of the more aggressive Bitcoin price predictions currently circulating in the market.
However, not everyone agrees.
Analysts Debate Whether Bitcoin Can Reach $1 Million
Hayes’ prediction comes shortly after 10x Research head of research Markus Thielen questioned whether Bitcoin could realistically reach $1 million by 2030.
Thielen argued that such a valuation would require enormous amounts of new capital entering the Bitcoin market.
According to his analysis, the inflows that helped Bitcoin reach its current valuation over the past 15 years suggest that attracting the trillions of dollars potentially required for a $1 million BTC price within four years would be extremely difficult.
The opposing forecasts highlight an ongoing debate about how much institutional and global capital Bitcoin can attract during the next market cycle.
Bitcoin has also shown strong recent momentum, rising more than 22% over the previous 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data referenced in the original discussion.
Hayes Becomes Less Bullish on Hyperliquid
Although Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin, his outlook for Hyperliquid has become more cautious.
He believes much of Hyperliquid’s potential is now widely recognized by investors. As a result, the opportunity no longer offers the same level of asymmetric upside that may have existed when the project was less established.
Hayes explained that expectations surrounding Hyperliquid have increased significantly.
That does not necessarily mean he expects the token to fall. Instead, he believes there are now other opportunities in the broader altcoin market offering a more attractive balance between potential returns and risk.
For Maelstrom, the investment firm associated with Hayes, this means capital may be better deployed elsewhere.
Hayes Says US Monetary Policy Matters More Than Trump
Hayes also discussed the potential influence of US politics on cryptocurrency prices.
His comments followed statements from US President Donald Trump regarding efforts to bring Hyperliquid further into the US market.
However, Hayes argued that presidential statements have relatively little direct impact on Bitcoin’s long-term price.
Instead, he believes crypto investors should pay closer attention to the US Treasury, the Federal Reserve, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and broader monetary policy.
In Hayes’ view, liquidity conditions, government borrowing, interest rates, and monetary policy decisions have a much greater influence on Bitcoin than political headlines.
Hayes Questions the Political Importance of Crypto Regulation
Hayes also raised doubts about whether major cryptocurrency legislation will become a political priority.
He questioned whether President Trump would spend significant political capital pushing legislation such as the CLARITY Act through Congress.
According to Hayes, cryptocurrency regulation may simply not rank highly enough among the issues that influence the average voter.
Therefore, while regulatory developments remain important for the crypto industry, Hayes appears to believe that monetary policy will continue to have a much larger impact on market prices.
Arthur Hayes Reflects on the BitMEX Shutdown
Hayes also discussed the planned shutdown of BitMEX, the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange he helped launch in 2014.
Before entering the cryptocurrency industry, Hayes worked as an equity derivatives trader at Deutsche Bank and Citibank in Hong Kong after graduating from the University of Pennsylvania in 2008.
He later co-founded BitMEX alongside Ben Delo and Samuel Reed.
The exchange announced that it would shut down on September 23, asking users to close open positions and withdraw their funds before the deadline.
Hayes said he viewed the closure positively because BitMEX was able to end operations on its own terms rather than being forced to close following a security breach or major operational failure.
He described the decision as effectively landing the business safely rather than allowing outside circumstances to determine its fate.
Running a Crypto Exchange Has Become Extremely Competitive
Hayes also argued that operating a cryptocurrency exchange has become increasingly difficult.
Competition among major platforms is intense, while infrastructure, cybersecurity, technology, compliance, and data center expenses remain high.
Because of those costs, Hayes believes operating an exchange is increasingly difficult unless a company can achieve the scale of major global platforms such as Binance or OKX.
For smaller competitors, the economics of running an exchange may simply no longer be attractive enough.
Ethereum Is Arthur Hayes’ Number One Crypto Pick
Despite predicting major long-term upside for Bitcoin, Hayes says Ethereum is currently his top cryptocurrency investment.
He believes ETH offers a better risk-to-reward opportunity for new capital entering the crypto market.
His outlook is particularly bullish because Ethereum has significantly underperformed several other major crypto assets.
Hayes believes Ethereum could potentially rise three to five times relatively quickly if investor sentiment begins to shift.
By comparison, he does not currently expect the same level of upside from Hyperliquid.
Why Hayes Thinks Ethereum Could Surge
One of the main reasons Hayes favors Ethereum is its relative weakness compared with other major cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum remains one of the largest cryptocurrencies in the world, yet it has struggled to move decisively beyond the record highs reached during the 2021 market cycle.
That underperformance has contributed to negative investor sentiment toward ETH.
However, Hayes sees that pessimism as part of the opportunity.
Ethereum remains the foundational blockchain for a large part of the decentralized finance ecosystem. Therefore, he believes the asset could benefit significantly if capital rotates back toward major altcoins.
Recent price action has also strengthened his conviction. Hayes noted that Ethereum quickly gained around 20% during a recent Bitcoin rally.
For him, that response suggests ETH could outperform if broader cryptocurrency market momentum continues.
Bitcoin Remains Bullish, but Ethereum May Offer More Upside
Hayes remains highly optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term future and believes macroeconomic conditions could eventually help BTC reach $1 million by 2030.
Nevertheless, his immediate preference is Ethereum.
The combination of depressed sentiment, Ethereum’s important role in decentralized finance, and its failure to reclaim previous record highs has created what Hayes sees as an attractive risk-reward opportunity.
If the broader crypto market continues to strengthen, Hayes believes Ethereum may have the potential to deliver significantly larger percentage gains than Bitcoin or Hyperliquid in the near term.
