Gold prices moved modestly higher on Monday, holding close to $4,400 an ounce as a weaker U.S. dollar and softer economic data supported demand for bullion.
At the same time, ongoing uncertainty surrounding Middle East energy supplies kept inflation risks elevated, limiting expectations for a rapid shift toward easier monetary policy.
Gold Price Holds Firm Near $4,400
Spot gold, tracked by XAU/USD, rose around 0.5% to $4,399.44 an ounce, while gold futures gained approximately 0.4% to $4,455.90.
Other precious metals also advanced. Silver climbed 1.7% to $65.83 an ounce, while platinum rose 1.8% to $1,749.15.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index slipped 0.2% to 99.49, providing additional support for dollar-denominated metals.
A weaker dollar generally makes gold cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which can help lift demand.
Softer U.S. Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Concerns
Gold entered the new week after gaining nearly 1% during the previous week.
Recent U.S. economic data has weakened expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in the near term.
Consumer sentiment declined for the first time in three months, while retail sales recorded their largest monthly fall in more than a year.
The weaker readings suggest that parts of the U.S. economy may be losing momentum.
That has reduced some of the pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy further.
Because gold does not pay interest, lower expectations for future rate increases can make the metal more attractive compared with interest-bearing assets.
Treasury Yields Remain Important for Gold
Gold prices also remain sensitive to movements in U.S. Treasury yields.
ANZ analysts noted that the inverse relationship between gold and bond yields has strengthened, meaning higher borrowing costs are increasingly creating pressure for bullion.
The bank expects gold’s performance over the coming year to unfold in several phases.
Initially, persistent inflation and a Federal Reserve that keeps rates unchanged could limit upside. That could eventually be followed by a weaker economy if higher energy prices create a broader slowdown.
A later shift toward monetary easing could then provide stronger support for gold.
ANZ Sees Gold Reaching $5,200
ANZ maintains a bullish longer-term outlook for the precious metal.
The bank believes worsening geopolitical tensions could continue encouraging central banks to diversify their reserves away from traditional assets.
That trend could provide a significant source of demand for bullion.
ANZ expects gold prices to potentially reach $5,200 an ounce by the end of the year.
Investors will therefore continue monitoring both geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve policy for clues about the next major move in gold.
Fed Minutes Could Provide Fresh Rate Signals
Attention will turn to the release of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes on Wednesday.
The minutes could provide additional insight into how policymakers view inflation, economic growth and the need for future interest-rate changes.
Any indication that officials are becoming more concerned about weaker economic activity could support gold.
On the other hand, signs that policymakers remain focused on inflation could keep Treasury yields elevated and limit bullion’s upside.
Strait of Hormuz Keeps Inflation Risks Elevated
Despite weaker U.S. economic data, inflation risks have not disappeared.
Several vessels came under attack in the Strait of Hormuz late last week, adding to concerns over energy supply disruptions.
The United States has also indicated that it is preparing additional measures designed to increase economic pressure on Iran.
Shipping activity through the strategically important waterway remains uncertain, with some vessels reportedly switching off tracking equipment in an effort to reduce their exposure to security risks.
Iran and Oman Talks Offer Some Hope
Iran and Oman have reportedly moved closer to an agreement over how the Strait of Hormuz could be managed.
However, the United States is not directly involved in those discussions.
The combination of shipping disruptions, diplomatic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions has kept the global energy outlook volatile.
Any renewed surge in crude oil prices could increase inflationary pressures, making it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts.
That creates a complicated environment for gold, which can benefit from geopolitical uncertainty but may face pressure if inflation keeps interest rates elevated.
Central Banks Continue Buying Gold
Gold’s broader recovery has also been supported by stronger investment demand and continued purchases from global central banks.
The metal recently climbed above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April, highlighting improving technical momentum.
Central-bank buying has remained particularly important.
According to ANZ, global central banks purchased approximately 244 tonnes of gold during the first quarter of 2026, marking the strongest quarterly total since the final quarter of 2024.
China also accelerated its purchases, adding around 8 tonnes in April, its largest monthly increase since December 2024.
Gold Outlook Remains Supported by Multiple Factors
Gold remains supported by a combination of weaker U.S. economic data, a softer dollar, central-bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
However, rising energy prices could create renewed inflation pressure and complicate the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
For now, gold continues to hold near the important $4,400 level, with investors watching U.S. interest rates, Treasury yields, Middle East developments and central-bank buying for the next major catalyst.
