Goldman Sachs Raises European Gas Price Forecast
Goldman Sachs has increased its short-term forecast for European gas prices. The bank expects liquefied natural gas exports from the Persian Gulf to recover more slowly than previously anticipated.
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continue to affect global LNG shipments.
Persian Gulf LNG Recovery Delayed Until October
Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart now expects Persian Gulf LNG exports to return to normal levels in October 2026.
The bank had previously predicted that exports would recover by July. However, continued shipping problems through the Strait of Hormuz have delayed that timeline.
The waterway is one of the world’s most important energy routes. Around one-fifth of global petroleum consumption and approximately 20% of worldwide LNG exports pass through the strait.
European Gas Storage Levels Could Fall
Goldman Sachs estimates that global LNG supply during the remainder of the summer could decline by around 16 million tonnes per year. This represents a reduction of approximately 4%.
As a result, gas storage facilities in Northwest Europe may be only 67% full by the end of October, when the winter heating season begins.
The bank previously expected storage levels to reach 74% by that point.
Assuming average winter temperatures, European gas storage could fall to around 28% by late March 2027.
Dutch TTF Gas Forecast Raised Sharply
Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for Dutch TTF gas prices during the second half of 2026.
The bank now expects TTF prices to average €60 per megawatt-hour during the remainder of the third quarter. Its previous estimate was €41.
For the fourth quarter of 2026, Goldman forecasts an average price of €53 per megawatt-hour, compared with its earlier projection of €40.
The bank also slightly increased its full-year 2027 forecast from €30 to €31 per megawatt-hour.
TTF Prices May Remain Near €65
Dart believes Europe’s winter gas balance leaves little room for further supply disruptions.
Therefore, Goldman Sachs expects TTF prices to remain close to €65 per megawatt-hour during the rest of the summer.
The bank considers this level important because it may discourage Asian buyers from competing aggressively for available LNG cargoes.
Winter Price Risks Remain High
Goldman Sachs believes the risks to its short-term European gas forecast remain tilted to the upside.
The bank continues to recommend that major gas consumers hedge against the possibility of sharp winter price increases.
In a scenario where Middle Eastern energy exports recover only gradually through 2027, TTF prices may need to rise above €100 per megawatt-hour.
According to Goldman, prices at that level could be necessary to reduce Asian LNG demand and redirect more supply toward Europe.
Faster Hormuz Recovery Could Push Prices Lower
A quicker recovery in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would create a more positive outlook for European gas buyers.
Under that scenario, TTF prices could fall back toward €40 per megawatt-hour.
Goldman Sachs said this level is broadly consistent with the point at which electricity producers may switch between coal and natural gas.
Goldman Remains Bearish on Long-Term Gas Prices
Despite its stronger near-term outlook, Goldman Sachs remains bearish on European gas prices for 2028 and 2029.
The bank expects Dutch TTF prices to average €19 per megawatt-hour in 2028 and €16 in 2029.
However, these forecasts depend on the Strait of Hormuz being fully reopened to commercial shipping.
US LNG and Renewables Could Pressure Prices
Goldman Sachs also identified several factors that could push long-term gas prices lower.
New LNG export projects in the United States may increase global supply. Meanwhile, stronger coal and renewable energy generation in Asia could reduce the region’s demand for imported natural gas.
Together, these developments may ease pressure on the global LNG market after the current supply disruptions fade.
