Standard Chartered Says Crypto Market May Have Reached Its Bottom
Standard Chartered believes the cryptocurrency market has likely reached the lowest point of its current cycle, with Bitcoin recently touching a low of $59,000 after falling approximately 53% from its all-time high of $126,000.
The bank’s digital asset research team argues that several emerging developments could signal the beginning of a new recovery phase for the crypto market.
Key Catalysts Could Confirm a Crypto Market Rebound
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, highlighted two major events that could help validate the view that the market bottom is already in place.
The first catalyst is the possibility of a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. According to Kendrick, a diplomatic breakthrough could ease pressure on energy markets, lower oil prices, and reduce U.S. Treasury yields. Such a scenario would likely improve investor sentiment and support risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
The second potential catalyst is the highly anticipated SpaceX initial public offering (IPO). Kendrick noted that some Bitcoin ETF investors may have been selling crypto holdings in recent weeks to raise cash ahead of the IPO, contributing to significant outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
If the SpaceX listing absorbs most of that selling pressure, the crypto market could benefit from improved capital flows moving forward.
Bitcoin ETF Flows Remain a Critical Indicator
Recent weeks have seen some of the largest outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs since the products were introduced.
According to Kendrick, a return to positive ETF inflows would be an important signal that institutional demand is recovering.
To strengthen his bullish outlook, he said he would like to see several developments unfold in the coming days, including:
- Additional Bitcoin purchases announced by Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)
- A positive net inflow day for Bitcoin ETFs
- Continued declines in crude oil prices
- Further stabilization across global financial markets
These factors together could reinforce the argument that the crypto market has already completed its correction phase.
“Crypto Spring” May Be Beginning
Expressing optimism about the sector’s future, Kendrick described the recent selloff as potentially coming to an end.
“Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” he stated, suggesting that the market may be entering a new growth phase following months of heavy selling pressure.
Earlier this month, Kendrick reaffirmed his forecast that Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of the year. He argued that current price levels may eventually be viewed as one of the most attractive buying opportunities of the cycle.
Bitcoin Remains Under Pressure Despite Recovery
Bitcoin has lost more than half of its value since reaching a record high in October last year. The decline has occurred despite the introduction of several crypto-friendly policies under President Donald Trump’s administration.
On Friday, Bitcoin rose 0.9% to approximately $63,338, putting the cryptocurrency on track for a modest weekly gain. However, that recovery followed a sharp 17% decline during the previous week.
Although sentiment has improved slightly, Bitcoin continues to trade near its annual lows as institutional investors maintain selling pressure through spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Outlook for the Crypto Market
Standard Chartered’s latest analysis suggests that the worst phase of the current crypto cycle may be over. While confirmation is still needed through stronger ETF inflows, lower oil prices, and renewed institutional demand, the bank believes the conditions are emerging for a potential market recovery.
Investors will be closely watching ETF activity, Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases, macroeconomic developments, and geopolitical events in the coming weeks to determine whether Bitcoin has truly established its cycle bottom.
