HSBC Raises Silver Price Forecasts for 2026 and 2027
HSBC has increased its silver price forecasts, projecting the precious metal to average $75 per troy ounce in 2026 and $68 per ounce in 2027. The revised outlook marks a significant increase from the bank’s previous estimates of $68.25 for 2026 and $57 for 2027.
The updated projections come after silver experienced extreme price volatility over recent months, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, strong safe-haven demand, and ongoing supply concerns.
Silver Hits Record High Before Sharp Pullback
Silver surged to a record nominal high of $121 per ounce in late January. The rally was fueled by soaring gold prices, tight market supply, and increased investor demand for safe-haven assets amid global tariff fears and geopolitical tensions.
However, the metal later retreated sharply to around $64 per ounce in early February. The decline followed a stronger U.S. dollar triggered by conflict in the Middle East and a temporary pullback in gold prices.
Since then, silver has recovered again and was trading above $86 per ounce at the time of writing.
HSBC Remains Cautious Despite Higher Targets
Although HSBC raised its long-term silver price outlook, the bank maintained a cautious medium-term stance. Analysts warned that narrowing supply deficits and weakening industrial and jewelry demand could limit the potential for sustained price rallies.
According to HSBC, the global silver market deficit is expected to shrink substantially over the next two years. The bank forecasts the deficit will decline from 143 million ounces in 2025 to 73 million ounces in 2026 before narrowing further to just 25 million ounces in 2027.
The expected reduction in deficits is mainly linked to higher mine production and increased recycling supply entering the market.
James Steel, HSBC’s chief precious metals analyst, said moderating supply shortages are unlikely to push silver prices sharply higher for extended periods. The bank expects silver prices to soften during the second half of both 2026 and 2027.
Industrial Silver Demand Continues to Weaken
Industrial demand remains one of the most important drivers for silver prices, accounting for more than half of total global consumption.
HSBC noted that industrial silver demand fell to 657 million ounces in 2025 from a record 679 million ounces the previous year. Manufacturers have increasingly attempted to substitute silver or reduce usage due to elevated prices.
The bank expects this trend to continue over the coming years. Industrial demand is projected to decline further to 642 million ounces in 2026 and 618 million ounces in 2027.
At the same time, jewelry demand is also expected to weaken significantly. HSBC forecasts jewelry-related silver demand will fall to 157 million ounces this year, down from 189 million ounces in 2025.
Mine Supply and Recycling Output Expected to Rise
On the supply side, HSBC expects silver mine production to remain relatively stable in 2026 at around 848 million ounces before increasing more noticeably to 868 million ounces in 2027.
Meanwhile, recycling supply is forecast to continue rising. The bank expects recycled silver supply to reach 216 million ounces this year compared to 197 million ounces in 2025.
Higher recycling activity is often encouraged by elevated silver prices, as more investors and industries seek to capitalize on strong market valuations.
Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Could Support Silver
Despite its cautious outlook, HSBC believes some factors could continue supporting silver prices over the longer term.
The bank pointed to expectations for a weaker U.S. dollar and persistent geopolitical uncertainty as potential bullish drivers for the precious metal market.
However, James Steel cautioned that the gold-to-silver ratio could widen further, potentially causing silver to underperform gold even during periods when gold prices continue rising.
HSBC ultimately set its year-end silver price targets at $70 per ounce for 2026 and $65 per ounce for 2027.
