UBS Remains Bullish on Gold Outlook
UBS continues to hold a positive outlook on gold, expecting prices to reach new highs as upside risks continue to build. According to strategist Joni Teves, the long-term trend for gold remains firmly intact despite recent market volatility.
Recent Pressure from Rates and Strong Dollar
Gold prices have faced pressure in recent weeks as investors focused on rising oil prices, inflation concerns, and the possibility of additional interest rate hikes. Higher U.S. real yields and a stronger dollar have also weighed on the precious metal.
Pullbacks Seen as Buying Opportunities
Despite short-term weakness, UBS views recent declines as attractive entry points for investors. The bank believes the gold bull run could extend for several more years, particularly if slower economic growth leads to fiscal or monetary stimulus.
UBS maintains that gold is likely to reach new highs this year, encouraging investors to use price dips as opportunities to build positions.
Updated Gold Price Forecasts
UBS forecasts gold to average $5,000 per ounce in 2026, slightly revised down from a previous estimate of $5,200. The adjustment reflects recent price movements following gold’s pullback from record highs earlier in the year.
Longer-term projections remain unchanged, with gold expected to average $4,800 in 2027 and $4,250 in 2028.
Strong Demand and Market Positioning
The bank notes that speculative positions have largely been cleared, while ETF outflows remain limited. This creates room for investors to re-enter the market.
Demand remains particularly strong in China, where gold ETFs continue to attract inflows and physical demand stays robust. This trend is expected to support imports and overall market strength in the coming months.
Structural Shift in Gold Investment
UBS believes the gold market is currently underinvested and highlights a broader structural shift. Both private and institutional investors are increasingly viewing gold as a strategic asset for portfolio diversification and risk protection.
The bank considers any pullback toward the $4,000 level as a key opportunity for accumulation.
Silver Outlook and Industrial Risks
On silver, UBS has lowered its 2026 price forecast to $91.9 per ounce, down from $105. Despite this revision, the bank still expects silver to outperform gold during bullish phases.
However, silver’s industrial nature makes it more vulnerable to a slowdown in global economic growth, which could weaken demand and investor sentiment.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio and Other Metals
UBS expects the gold-to-silver ratio to remain elevated, with limited chances of returning to earlier lows. The ratio is likely to stabilize in the 50–60 range, rather than revisiting previous levels near 40.
Platinum and palladium face similar challenges due to weaker industrial demand. However, supply risks—particularly related to potential disruptions in South African mining amid Middle East tensions—could provide some price support.
