Turkey’s inflation rate for September is expected to rise by 2.6% month-on-month, mainly due to higher education and food prices, while the annual rate is forecast to ease slightly to 32.5%, according to a Reuters poll released on Friday.
The median forecast of 13 economists showed inflation accelerating from 2.04% in August. Estimates ranged between 2.3% and 3.5% for the month. On a yearly basis, inflation forecasts were between 32.09% and 33.6%, compared with 32.95% in August.
Economists pointed to seasonal education costs at the start of the school year, along with higher prices for eggs, meat, and other food staples, as the main drivers of September inflation.
Morgan Stanley noted that inflation data will be closely monitored. The central bank has already highlighted risks from food and service-related costs. The bank said it expects the CBRT to continue rate cuts but at a slower pace, reducing the cut to 200 basis points in October from 250 in September. This would lower the one-week repo rate to 38.5%.
Earlier this month, Turkey’s central bank slowed its easing cycle with a 250-basis-point cut, bringing the policy rate to 40.5%. The move came amid rising political risks, stronger-than-expected inflation, and faster economic growth.
In March, Turkish markets faced turbulence as the lira hit record lows against the U.S. dollar after Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival to President Tayyip Erdogan, was jailed pending trial on graft charges, which he denies.
Looking ahead, the poll suggests annual inflation will fall to around 30% by year-end, still above the central bank’s 24% target and its forecast range of 25% to 29%. Economists said the central bank will adjust its policy step size at each meeting and could tighten its stance if inflation deviates significantly from interim goals.
The Turkish Statistical Institute is scheduled to release official September inflation data at 07:00 GMT on October 3.
