XRP’s supply on cryptocurrency exchanges has fallen to its lowest level in nearly eight years, significantly tightening the amount of tokens available for sale. This ongoing reduction in exchange balances is strengthening the supply-side narrative and raising expectations of a potential supply-driven price rally heading into 2026.
XRP has managed to hold above a critical demand zone that has consistently supported its price throughout 2025. With fewer tokens sitting on exchanges and selling pressure continuing to decline, market participants are closely watching whether this combination can trigger a sustained recovery phase next year.
Key highlights
- XRP exchange supply has dropped to an eight-year low, indicating reduced selling pressure.
- Buyers are attempting to solidify support around the $1.78 level as a foundation for the next move higher.
XRP exchange supply drops sharply
According to data cited by Cointelegraph, XRP balances on centralized exchanges have declined sharply over the past 60 days. On-chain data from Glassnode shows that exchange reserves fell by approximately 2.16 billion XRP, dropping from 3.76 billion tokens in early October to roughly 1.6 billion—levels last seen in August 2018.
A shrinking exchange balance typically suggests that holders are moving assets off platforms rather than preparing to sell. This behavior is often interpreted as a bullish signal, as it limits immediate sell-side liquidity and strengthens the case for higher prices over time.
The decline in exchange balances coincided with record outflows, with XRP’s net position change across exchanges falling by around 1.4 billion tokens in a single day. This marked the largest outflow spike ever recorded for the asset.
Large exchange outflows are commonly associated with accumulation by long-term holders or institutional participants, who transfer tokens to cold storage or structured investment vehicles. As a result, available liquidity tightens, reducing downside pressure during periods of consolidation.
Some market analysts suggest that growing institutional exposure, including ETF-related flows, is gradually reshaping XRP’s liquidity profile. As exchange supply continues to contract, XRP may be entering a more structurally driven phase of price discovery heading into 2026.
XRP holds critical support above $1.78
XRP’s recent pullback was halted within a well-defined demand zone between $1.60 and $1.84, an area that has repeatedly acted as support throughout 2025. Holding above this range has historically preceded notable recovery moves in XRP’s price action.
Data from Glassnode’s UTXO realized price distribution highlights $1.78 as the most important support level, where approximately 1.87 billion XRP tokens were accumulated. Below this level, on-chain support thins considerably, making it a critical line for maintaining bullish recovery expectations into 2026.
If XRP successfully rebounds from this zone, technical analysts point to the potential formation of a triple-bottom structure on the higher timeframes. A confirmed breakout could open the door toward higher targets later in the cycle. However, losing this support would significantly weaken the outlook for a sustained uptrend.
While XRP may remain range-bound in the near term, analysts broadly agree that a stronger bullish phase will likely depend on fresh catalysts emerging as market conditions evolve closer to 2026.
