Crypto Market Sinks as Traders Await Fed Minutes and Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech
The crypto market dropped sharply as investors braced for two key events this week: the release of the July FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s address at Jackson Hole. Both are expected to provide clues on the likelihood of September rate cuts.
Key Highlights:
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Bitcoin and broader crypto markets slipped ahead of the August 20 release of the FOMC minutes and Powell’s August 22 speech.
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Speculation about a September rate cut is intensifying, with odds climbing sharply on CME and Polymarket.
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U.S. PPI data, tariffs-driven inflation, tech earnings, and other macro indicators could weigh on the Fed’s next move.
FOMC Minutes on Deck
After holding rates steady at the July meeting, the Fed gave little indication of its next steps. That uncertainty has heightened interest in this week’s minutes, set to be published Wednesday, August 20, at 2:00 p.m. ET. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will follow on Friday, August 22.
Jackson Hole’s theme this year centers on jobs, meaning employment data could be a major focus in shaping rate policy. Analysts expect volatility, as these events could trigger sharp swings across digital assets.
Split Within the Fed and Rising Rate-Cut Bets
For the first time since 1993, dissenting votes appeared in the July meeting, with Fed officials Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller advocating for a 0.25% rate cut. This aligns with President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for aggressive cuts throughout 2025.
Expectations for a September reduction have soared. CME’s FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of cuts, while Polymarket reflects about 73.6%. Still, stronger-than-expected U.S. PPI data at 3.3% YoY adds uncertainty.
Crypto and Global Markets React
Bitcoin has slid to a one-week low of $115,500, dragging the broader market lower by 0.75% in total market cap today, with deeper declines on longer timeframes. Stocks, oil, and global bonds are also under pressure, partly influenced by ongoing U.S.–Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations.
How Powell frames his Jackson Hole remarks—whether dovish or hawkish—will likely set the tone for markets heading into September.
