Brokerage firm Bernstein has significantly raised its long-term gold price forecast, citing strong institutional demand and supportive macroeconomic conditions. The firm believes these factors could drive the precious metal substantially higher by the end of the decade.
Bernstein now projects gold to reach $4,800 per ounce in 2026 and climb further to $6,100 per ounce by 2030. The revised outlook is based on a new analytical framework that focuses on net demand from central banks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as well as the expected impact of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts.
According to Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett, recent gold demand has been largely fueled by central bank purchases and ETF inflows. Although central bank buying is expected to moderate in 2025, it remains well above pre-2022 levels. Survey data suggests continued accumulation, with 95% of central banks anticipating an increase in global gold reserves over the next year. Additionally, 73% expect a reduced share of U.S. dollar reserves over the next five years, supporting long-term gold demand.
ETF flows are viewed as a key driver of institutional investment. Holdings have risen sharply since mid-2024, and ETFs can amplify price movements when inflows accelerate. This pro-cyclical dynamic could further boost gold prices during periods of rising investor interest.
The broader macroeconomic environment also strengthens Bernstein’s bullish stance. Markets are currently pricing in two to three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, a scenario that historically benefits gold. Brackett noted that gold has delivered an average return of 6.53% in the twelve months following rate cuts. If at least two cuts materialize in 2026, this could imply a potential total return of approximately 13%.
Over the longer term, structural trends such as global reserve diversification and the expanding U.S. fiscal deficit add further support to the positive outlook for gold prices.
However, Bernstein also highlighted potential downside risks. A slowdown in central bank buying or a rise in real interest rates could weigh on ETF flows and limit gold’s upside momentum.
Alongside its updated gold projections, Bernstein upgraded Newmont Goldcorp (NYSE:NEM) to Outperform and set a $157 price target. The firm raised its EBITDA forecast for the miner by 26% to $21.9 billion, reflecting a more constructive view on future gold prices.
