Oppenheimer Asset Management announced on Monday a year-end 2026 target of 8,100 for the S&P 500, marking the most optimistic forecast among major Wall Street firms. The brokerage said the outlook reflects expectations for strong corporate earnings and continued resilience in the U.S. economy.
The projection represents an 18% increase from the index’s most recent close at 6,870.40 and is based on estimated earnings per share of $305.
By comparison, Deutsche Bank has set an 8,000 target, while a Reuters survey from November showed strategists expecting U.S. stocks to gain about 12% between now and the end of next year.
According to Oppenheimer’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus, economic data released so far this year continues to show that U.S. growth is holding up well, even during what he describes as a highly transitional period in market history.
The S&P 500 has risen roughly 16.8% this year, supported by strong investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, solid corporate profitability and expectations of lower interest rates. These gains have occurred despite concerns about technology valuations and the possibility of an emerging market bubble.
Mega-cap technology companies including Nvidia, Microsoft and Alphabet have driven much of the rally, fueled by record levels of AI-related spending.
Oppenheimer said it remains positive on U.S. equities and favors cyclical sectors over defensive areas of the market.
The firm also anticipates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement a 25-basis-point rate cut this week, with the potential for one or two more reductions next year if inflation stays under control.
