Wall Street analysts say stronger-than-expected third-quarter GDP data confirms the resilience of the U.S. economy, but they do not expect it to trigger an immediate change in Federal Reserve policy, even as investors debate the timing of the next interest rate cut.
In a note responding to the report, Vital Knowledge said the data delivered a “net positive takeaway,” pointing to solid economic growth alongside supportive indicators from Mastercard and ADP. The firm acknowledged that the figures could fuel some hawkish concerns, but said it is unlikely the Federal Open Market Committee will adjust its broader outlook based on this release alone.
Vital Knowledge noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has recently placed greater emphasis on gross domestic income, which remains at healthy levels. As a result, the firm does not believe the GDP surprise materially alters the central bank’s policy stance.
The research group added that markets had been split between March 18 and April 29 as potential dates for the next rate cut. While the data could nudge expectations toward the later date, it described the shift as “hardly a fatal setback for equities.”
CIBC echoed a similar assessment, calling the GDP report “a good outcome and better than expected.” The bank highlighted that growth was fueled by robust consumer spending and investment tied to artificial intelligence.
Consumer spending rose 3.5% in the quarter, accounting for more than half of total economic growth. At the same time, investment in software, research and development, and information-processing equipment contributed roughly 10% of the overall expansion.
Despite the upside surprise, CIBC said the implications for monetary policy remain limited. The firm stressed that the Fed places greater weight on labor market conditions than on headline activity data. With signs that job growth is cooling, CIBC expects the central bank to provide additional policy support in the coming year, forecasting two interest rate cuts in the first half of 2026.
