Venezuela’s crude oil production is expected to rise gradually in the coming years following the dramatic U.S. military action and the capture of its president, a shift that could increase global supply and put downward pressure on oil prices over the longer term, according to analysts.
U.S. forces detained Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in Caracas over the weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would assume control of the oil-producing nation, while confirming that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan crude remains fully in place.
Venezuela’s oil potential and production history
Venezuela, a member of OPEC, holds around 17% of the world’s proven oil reserves, or roughly 303 billion barrels, according to the London-based Energy Institute. This places the country ahead of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia in terms of reserves.
Crude output peaked in the 1970s at about 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for more than 7% of global production at the time. Output declined sharply in subsequent decades, falling below 2 million bpd in the 2010s and averaging roughly 1.1 million bpd last year, or about 1% of global supply.
Analyst forecasts point to gradual recovery
Analysts at JPMorgan, led by Natasha Kaneva, said that a political transition could allow Venezuela to lift production to between 1.3 and 1.4 million bpd within two years. Over the next decade, output could potentially reach 2.5 million bpd, up from an estimated 800,000 bpd currently.
The analysts added that these longer-term supply dynamics are not yet reflected in the back end of the oil futures curve.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Daan Struyven said any recovery in Venezuelan oil production is likely to be slow and would require significant investment. In a scenario where output rises to 2 million bpd, they estimate a downside of about $4 per barrel for oil prices by 2030.
Sanctions remain a key short-term risk
In the near term, Venezuela’s production outlook will depend heavily on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves. Goldman Sachs noted that risks to oil prices in the short run remain modest but uncertain, depending on future policy decisions.
The bank left its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged, projecting Brent crude to average $56 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $52 per barrel. Venezuela’s oil production in 2026 is expected to remain broadly flat at around 900,000 bpd.
