UBS Raises Gold and Silver Price Forecasts Amid Strong Demand
UBS has once again raised its gold and silver price forecasts, citing strong investor demand, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, and persistent fiscal and geopolitical pressures.
Gold and Silver Forecasts Revised Higher
UBS now expects gold to reach $4,200 an ounce across all timeframes. This is higher than its earlier projections of $3,800 by end-2025 and $3,900 by mid-2026.
Silver forecasts were lifted to $52 and $55 an ounce, compared with previous targets of $44 and $47. Strategists said silver has “greater room to overshoot” due to its higher volatility, with risks skewed to the upside.
Precious Metals Rally
Both metals have delivered strong gains this year. Gold hit fresh all-time highs in both real and nominal terms, while silver climbed to its highest levels since 2011, up 25% in the last quarter and 60% year-to-date.
UBS strategists, led by Dominic Schnider, said macro, fiscal, and political dynamics are driving demand for safe-haven assets. They noted a “fear of missing out” sentiment that continues to push inflows into precious metals.
Key Drivers for Precious Metals
UBS highlighted several supportive factors:
- Central bank demand, with expected gold purchases of 900–950 metric tons this year.
- ETF inflows from private investors seeking a hedge against U.S. Treasuries.
- Falling real interest rates and rising fiscal deficits in major economies like the U.S. and France.
- Weaker U.S. dollar amid the Federal Reserve’s return to rate cuts.
The bank also expects the gold-silver ratio to move toward 76x, reflecting stronger relative demand for silver.
Outlook for Other Metals
While bullish on gold and silver, UBS remains cautious on platinum and palladium. The bank raised its platinum forecast to $1,350 an ounce, up from $1,200, but warned the outlook still suggests softer prices ahead.
Palladium remains under pressure due to its reliance on auto-sector demand.
