UBS Forecasts Global AI Spending to Surpass $500 Billion by 2026
UBS projects that global capital expenditure on artificial intelligence (AI) will climb above half a trillion dollars by 2026, supported by strong market fundamentals and rapidly increasing demand for computing power.
The investment bank raised its forecast for global AI capex to $423 billion in 2025 and $571 billion in 2026, up from previous estimates of $375 billion and $500 billion, respectively. UBS now expects total AI-related spending to reach $1.3 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% over the next five years.
Major AI Investments Highlight Growing Momentum
UBS pointed to several large-scale deals as evidence of accelerating investment in the AI sector.
The bank cited OpenAI and Amazon’s seven-year, $38 billion partnership, announced Monday, as well as Microsoft’s $9.7 billion purchase of computing capacity from Australian data center operator IREN.
According to UBS, these transactions demonstrate the escalating need for high-performance computing infrastructure to support increasingly complex AI models and applications.
Computing Power Demand Outpaces Expectations
UBS noted that global demand for AI computing resources is growing faster than anticipated.
The firm highlighted that Google’s Gemini recorded a 130-fold increase in AI token usage over the past 18 months, while Meta’s computing needs have “expanded meaningfully” beyond projections.
Despite higher capital costs, UBS emphasized that major U.S. technology companies remain financially strong. The capex intensity of top firms has nearly doubled to 20.8% in the last five years and is expected to reach 27% by 2030.
AI Stocks Poised to Drive Market Growth
UBS concluded that AI-related equities are set to become a key driver of global stock markets in the coming years.
The bank advised that investors who are underexposed to the AI sector should consider adding diversified positions to capture growth from this rapidly expanding theme.
