U.S. stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as investors absorbed fresh labor market data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year. The outcome is expected to influence market sentiment heading into 2026.
At 10:30 ET (15:30 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 115 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 gained 4 points, or 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 20 points, or 0.1%.
Fed decision approaches
Markets are focused on the start of the Fed’s two-day meeting, with investors widely expecting an interest rate cut on Wednesday.
According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, the probability of a cut from the current 3.75%–4% range stands near 89%.
However, some policymakers have voiced concerns about approving a third cut since September, especially with limited new economic data available during the record-long government shutdown. ING analysts noted expectations for a “hawkish cut,” where rates decline but messaging remains cautious.
Labor data released Tuesday may also temper expectations for further easing. U.S. private payrolls rose by an average of 4,750 per week in the four weeks ending November 22, based on ADP’s weekly update. Job openings increased slightly to 7.670 million in October, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The monthly nonfarm payrolls report for November is now set for release on December 16. The October unemployment rate will not be published due to data disruptions from the shutdown.
Nvidia and Warner Bros Discovery in focus
Corporate earnings on tap Tuesday include AutoZone, Campbell Soup, AeroVironment, and Cracker Barrel.
Still, most investor attention is on Nvidia after President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that the company may sell its H200 AI chips to approved customers in China and select countries. These sales would carry a 25% tariff and include safeguards for U.S. national security.
Trump said he informed China’s President Xi of the decision, and that Xi responded positively. Nvidia’s H200 chip, launched in 2023, is estimated to be about six times more powerful than the H20, the most advanced chip the company was previously allowed to sell in China.
The announcement opens the door to higher AI-chip sales for Nvidia, a dominant supplier in China’s AI sector.
Meanwhile, Warner Bros Discovery attracted another bidder. Days after reports that Netflix had won the bidding war, Paramount Skydance launched a hostile $108.4 billion offer.
This bid exceeds Netflix’s $72 billion agreement and includes Warner’s full portfolio — film studios, TV networks, streaming services, and cable assets.
Oil prices steady as Ukraine peace talks progress
Oil prices stabilized on Tuesday after falling sharply in the previous session. Traders are watching ongoing diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Brent crude dipped 0.1% to $62.41 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate slipped 0.2% to $58.78.
Both benchmarks declined about 2% on Monday after Iraq restored output at the West Qurna-2 oilfield, a significant part of its national export capacity.
Ukraine has indicated it will present a revised peace plan to U.S. officials following talks in London between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and leaders from France, Germany, and the U.K.
Any steps toward a settlement could remove some of the geopolitical risk premium currently priced into crude markets.
