Donald Trump’s latest H-1B visa restrictions are expected to accelerate U.S. companies’ shift of high-value work to India, boosting the growth of global capability centres (GCCs). These centres manage operations ranging from finance to research and development, according to economists and industry insiders.
India, the world’s fifth-largest economy, is home to more than 1,700 GCCs — over half the global total. Once focused on tech support, they now lead innovation in areas such as luxury car design, drug discovery, and advanced analytics.
Industry experts say rising adoption of artificial intelligence, combined with tighter U.S. visa rules, is forcing American companies to rethink workforce strategies. GCCs in India have emerged as resilient hubs, combining global skills with local leadership. Deloitte India’s Rohan Lobo noted that several U.S. firms are already reassessing their operations and shifting roles toward India, particularly in financial services and technology.
Trump recently raised the cost of new H-1B visa applications to $100,000, up from the previous range of $2,000 to $5,000. This steep increase puts more pressure on companies that rely on skilled foreign talent. At the same time, U.S. senators have reintroduced legislation to tighten rules on both H-1B and L-1 visas, citing loopholes and alleged misuse by large employers.
If these restrictions continue, analysts expect U.S. firms to move more work tied to AI, cybersecurity, product development, and analytics into their India GCCs. Many companies prefer to keep such strategic functions in-house rather than outsourcing to third parties.
The shift comes amid a sense of urgency. Lalit Ahuja, CEO of ANSR, which helps multinationals establish GCCs, said the trend could spark “extreme offshoring.” He added that the COVID-19 pandemic proved that critical technology tasks can be handled remotely.
Major firms such as Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, JPMorgan Chase, and Walmart — all heavy H-1B visa sponsors — already have large India operations. Some experts predict even more roles could move to India, while others suggest nearshoring to Mexico, Colombia, or Canada as alternatives.
India was already projected to host more than 2,200 GCCs by 2030, with the sector expected to reach nearly $100 billion in market size. Trump’s visa crackdown may accelerate this growth, though new U.S. proposals such as the HIRE Act, which could impose a 25% outsourcing tax, present fresh challenges.
India’s $283 billion IT industry, which contributes almost 8% of GDP, may feel the pressure from tighter U.S. policies. However, growing demand for GCC services could offset potential losses. Nomura analysts noted that while revenues from H-1B visa-dependent businesses may decline, higher services exports through GCCs could help U.S. firms bypass immigration hurdles and maintain access to skilled talent.
