Tesla is on track to deliver strong third-quarter results, according to Wolfe Research, which expects vehicle deliveries to exceed market forecasts.
“Q3 is set to be a strong quarter,” Wolfe wrote, highlighting robust demand from both the United States and China.
The firm projects deliveries between 465,000 and 470,000 vehicles, representing a 22% increase from the previous quarter and a 1% rise year on year. This outlook is well above the consensus estimate of 445,000.
Much of the upside comes from U.S. buyers rushing to secure the $7,500 EV tax credit before it expires, while demand from China also played a key role. Wolfe estimates 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China, about 10,000 higher than its prior forecast, noting that volumes do not yet include the impact of the new Model Y L.
With stronger volumes, stable pricing, and growth in Tesla’s energy segment, Wolfe expects third-quarter earnings per share of $0.55 to $0.60, compared with the consensus of $0.49. The firm sees auto gross margins, excluding credits, at around 16.5% to 17%.
Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could be more challenging, with revenue and earnings pressured as U.S. demand is pulled forward by tax incentives. They forecast a 30,000-unit decline quarter over quarter.
However, several offsets remain in place. Wolfe expects seasonally stronger demand in Q4 in China and Europe, new product launches including the Model Y L and Tesla’s affordable lineup, rising energy storage deployments, and continued progress in autonomous driving.
The firm also noted that Tesla is preparing to expand into new U.S. markets such as Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, increase its Austin fleet size, and roll out FSD v14.
