Strategy holds $1.4 billion in cash, has no debt coming due until 2027, and owns Bitcoin at a cost basis well below current market prices — making any forced sale highly unlikely, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
Hougan said Strategy (MSTR) will not be pressured into selling its Bitcoin even if its share price drops, dismissing claims to the contrary as “flat wrong.”
“There is nothing about MSTR’s price falling below NAV that forces the company to liquidate Bitcoin,” he wrote in a note on Tuesday, highlighting chairman Michael Saylor’s strong long-term commitment to BTC.
Hougan emphasized that a large-scale Bitcoin sale would be damaging for the market. Strategy holds roughly $60 billion in BTC, an amount he compared to two years’ worth of Bitcoin ETF inflows. However, with no major debt deadlines before 2027 and enough cash to cover interest obligations, he believes a liquidation scenario is unrealistic.
Concerns about forced selling emerged after CEO Phong Le suggested last week that Strategy could sell Bitcoin as a “last resort” if the firm’s market value ever fell below the value of its holdings. Le said such a move would only occur if financing options completely dried up and if selling Bitcoin were necessary to protect “Bitcoin yield per share.”
Strategy is also dealing with a prolonged crypto downturn and a potential removal from the MSCI stock index.
Hougan: Strategy Can Withstand Market Pressure
Hougan argued that Strategy’s financial position is stronger than critics claim. With Bitcoin trading around $92,000, the firm’s holdings remain 24% above its average acquisition cost of $74,436.
He said the company faces no immediate pressure to sell. Strategy needs to cover about $800 million in annual interest payments and roll over certain debt instruments as they mature. But with $1.4 billion in cash, Hougan said Strategy can meet those obligations for at least the next 18 months.
Recent downward pressure on Strategy’s share price may be connected to an October announcement from MSCI. The index provider said it may remove companies that hold more than 50% of their balance sheets in crypto, which would force index-tracking funds to sell MSTR and create additional selling pressure.
Still, Hougan believes such index changes usually have a smaller impact than expected. He pointed to the Nasdaq-100 addition last December, when funds were required to buy $2.1 billion worth of MSTR shares. Even then, the stock “barely moved.”
Over the past 30 days, MSTR has fallen 24.69%, closing at $186.01 on Friday.
