Investors are turning their attention to Nvidia’s upcoming earnings report as they look for stability in a U.S. stock market shaken by artificial intelligence concerns and renewed trade uncertainty. The market is also absorbing the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision that overturned President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs, adding another layer of unpredictability.
The Supreme Court ruling initially pushed stocks and Treasury yields higher. However, investors are now questioning what alternative trade measures President Donald Trump may pursue and how the U.S. government will handle potential legal challenges and tariff refunds. This uncertainty continues to weigh on market sentiment.
Nvidia earnings in focus as AI stocks face pressure
Wall Street’s primary focus this week will be Nvidia Corp, widely regarded as a bellwether for the artificial intelligence sector. The semiconductor giant, currently the world’s largest company by market capitalization, is scheduled to release its quarterly results on Wednesday.
The broader technology sector, including many megacap stocks, has experienced a volatile start to 2026. These companies had driven major indexes higher in recent years, but recent weakness has pressured benchmarks such as the S&P 500.
Nvidia’s performance carries significant influence. The stock accounts for approximately 7.8% of the S&P 500, meaning its moves can materially impact the broader index.
Expectations remain high. Analysts forecast a 71% year-over-year rise in earnings per share for Nvidia’s fiscal fourth quarter, with revenue projected at $65.9 billion, according to LSEG data. For the next fiscal year, consensus estimates point to earnings of $7.76 per share, representing a 66% increase. However, projections vary widely, with estimates ranging from $6.28 to $9.68 per share.
This wide dispersion highlights the debate among investors. If bullish forecasts prove accurate, Nvidia’s valuation may appear reasonable. If more cautious projections materialize, the stock could look less attractive.
Over the past several years, Nvidia shares have surged more than 1,500% from late 2022 through the end of last year. In 2026, however, the stock has posted only modest gains of around 0.8%. Other members of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” have struggled even more, with Microsoft down over 17% this year and Amazon lower by 11%.
AI spending and CEO guidance under scrutiny
Major AI “hyperscalers” have announced plans to significantly increase capital expenditures to expand data centers and digital infrastructure. Much of that investment relies on Nvidia’s chips and hardware. As a result, investors expect strong results, but elevated expectations also make it difficult for Nvidia to deliver a meaningful upside surprise.
Market participants will pay close attention to comments from CEO Jensen Huang during the company’s earnings call. His outlook on customer demand, AI infrastructure spending, and industry momentum could have implications for the broader artificial intelligence ecosystem.
Confidence from Nvidia’s leadership may also support hyperscaler stocks, which have faced pressure over concerns about returns on heavy AI-related capital spending.
Software earnings and broader market themes
Beyond Nvidia, several major software companies, including Salesforce and Intuit, are set to report results. The software industry has been under pressure this year due to fears that artificial intelligence could disrupt traditional business models. The S&P 500 software and services index has fallen roughly 20% in 2026.
Investors will be watching closely to see whether companies can demonstrate adaptation and innovation in response to AI disruption. Upcoming earnings from AI infrastructure providers such as Dell and CoreWeave will also provide insight into demand trends.
Outside the technology sector, retailers Home Depot and Lowe’s will report results as the fourth-quarter earnings season draws to a close. Markets will additionally assess President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address for signals on economic and trade policy.
Despite weakness in technology stocks, the broader market has found support through rotation into sectors such as energy, industrials, and consumer staples. This shift highlights the changing leadership within the U.S. stock market in 2026, as last year’s winners face new challenges and previously overlooked sectors gain traction.
