Russia’s GDP Growth Slows to 1.1% in Q2 2025
Russia’s gross domestic product grew by 1.1% in the second quarter of 2025, down from 4.0% in the same period last year, according to federal statistics agency Rosstat. The figures highlight a clear slowdown in the Russian economy.
The rebound seen after the 2022 contraction was largely driven by soaring defence spending. This came as Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine began to bite. However, in 2025, officials have warned of recession risks as growth momentum weakens.
High interest rates, maintained for several months by the central bank to curb stubborn inflation, have also weighed heavily on economic activity.
President Vladimir Putin has rejected claims that the war in Ukraine is devastating Russia’s economy. He pointed to low public debt and economic diversification as signs of resilience.
In 2024, GDP grew by 4.3%. This year, the central bank expects growth of 1% to 2%, while the economy ministry may adjust its current 2.5% forecast.
In late July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global outlook for emerging markets and developing economies to 4.1% from 3.7%. This was boosted by strong expectations for China. But Russia was among the few exceptions.
The IMF now projects Russia’s GDP to expand by only 0.9% in 2025, down from its previous forecast of 1.5%.
