Morgan Stanley Sees Rocket Lab as a SpaceX Alternative, Raises Price Target to $68
Morgan Stanley has raised its price target for Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) to $68 from $20, describing the company as a publicly traded alternative to Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The investment firm expects Rocket Lab to benefit from strong global demand for satellite launch capacity as space commercialization accelerates.
Shares of Rocket Lab climbed nearly 4% to $67.80 following the report. Although Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal Weight rating, analysts noted that limited competition among listed space firms has helped push Rocket Lab’s stock significantly higher.
So far in 2025, Rocket Lab shares have surged 152%, far outperforming the S&P 500’s 11% gain. “RKLB, in our view, is an earlier-stage alternative to SpaceX,” Morgan Stanley said, adding that the valuation model now takes cues from SpaceX’s implied market value.
SpaceX’s private valuation has ballooned from around $100 billion in 2021 to nearly $400 billion today, providing a benchmark for Rocket Lab’s future growth potential.
Currently, Rocket Lab dominates the small-launch market with its Electron rocket, having successfully delivered over 230 satellites across 72 missions. The company’s next milestone is the Neutron rocket, a larger, reusable vehicle scheduled for its first test flight later this year. Morgan Stanley expects one launch in 2025, expanding to 12 annual missions by 2029 as reusability improves profit margins.
The analysts also praised Rocket Lab’s rapidly growing space systems division and its plans to develop a satellite constellation, mirroring SpaceX’s Starlink expansion. Despite some near-term challenges, the brokerage forecasts company-wide revenue growth of 41% CAGR between 2025 and 2029, with positive free cash flow expected by 2027.
However, Morgan Stanley maintained its Equal Weight rating, citing execution risks tied to the Neutron program’s debut. “Much appears priced in today,” analysts noted, though they expect strong tailwinds from satellite capacity shortages and future mission success to continue driving investor interest.
