Legal expert Fred Rispoli believes that Ripple has a 70% chance of defeating the U.S. SEC in their appeal if an impartial panel of judges is assigned to the case. Rispoli also suggested that the SEC is likely to appeal all aspects of Judge Analisa Torres’ rulings that were unfavorable to them, and that Ripple’s chances would improve further if they file a cross-appeal.
In an interview, Rispoli explained that Ripple’s success largely depends on the specific judges assigned to the case. If the 2nd Circuit Court of Appeal judges are unbiased, Ripple’s odds of winning could increase to 70%, but if the panel has a history of siding with the government, the SEC would have a 70-80% chance of success.
Rispoli also pointed out that the SEC is expected to focus on programmatic sales, particularly Judge Torres’ ruling that XRP itself is not a security. Additionally, the SEC might push for a larger fine than the $125 million initially imposed.
Ripple’s cross-appeal, according to Rispoli, would strengthen its chances of victory, potentially leading the court to uphold all of Judge Torres’ rulings. He noted that this case could continue until at least January 2026, though Judge Torres’ decision that XRP is not a security remains valid law until the appeal is resolved. Despite the ongoing lawsuit, some crypto analysts, like Egrag Crypto, still predict that XRP’s price could surpass $5, regardless of the SEC’s appeal.
