Recent US regulatory efforts aimed at tightening oversight of prediction markets have failed to curb activity so far in early 2026. On Monday, total trading volume across prediction platforms surged to a new all-time high of $701.7 million, surpassing the previous day’s record.
The majority of this activity was concentrated on Kalshi, which accounted for roughly two-thirds of total volume. Kalshi recorded $465.9 million in trades, significantly outpacing rival platforms. According to data from Dune Analytics cited by Gate Research, competitors Polymarket and Opinion each processed close to $100 million in combined trading volume.
Monday’s figure exceeded the prior record of $666.6 million, which had been set just one day earlier, once again with Kalshi leading by a wide margin. The rapid growth highlights the accelerating adoption of prediction markets, which have emerged as one of the most active crypto-related use cases since mid-2024.
Momentum in the sector has been further supported by infrastructure expansion. Major crypto exchanges such as Coinbase and Gemini have either integrated or announced plans to support prediction markets. At the same time, self-custody wallet providers like MetaMask are also moving to include similar functionality.
The combination of rising volumes and broader platform access has drawn increasing attention from Wall Street. Leading platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, are now reported to carry multi-billion-dollar valuations, reflecting growing institutional interest in the sector.
Prediction markets return to regulatory focus
Despite strong growth, prediction markets have once again come under regulatory scrutiny. Earlier this month, an anonymous user on Polymarket placed a bet of approximately $30,000 predicting that Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office shortly before he was captured. The wager reportedly paid out more than $400,000, raising concerns over potential access to non-public information.
In parallel, lawmakers in New York are preparing to review proposed legislation that would restrict certain prediction markets linked to politics, sports, equities, and other sensitive categories. Several other states — including Connecticut, Nevada, and New Jersey — have already attempted to impose limitations on prediction market operators, moves that have triggered legal challenges in response.
On Monday, a federal judge in Tennessee temporarily blocked state regulators from enforcing action against Kalshi. The ruling followed a lawsuit filed by the platform after it was ordered to stop offering sports-related event contracts.
International pressure has also emerged. In December, Ukraine reportedly restricted access to Polymarket, classifying prediction markets under gambling regulations.
