Veteran trader Peter Brandt has cautioned that Bitcoin could sink below Strategy’s average purchase price. His warning follows Bitcoin’s sharp decline under $100,000, while MSTR’s market net asset value (mNAV) has also slipped beneath the value of its Bitcoin reserves.
Brandt Says Bitcoin Could Slide Under $50,000
In a recent post on X, Brandt suggested that BTC’s downside target may fall below $50,000 if the latest break in its parabolic trend mirrors past cycles. He also questioned the price level at which Michael Saylor’s Strategy would begin taking losses, adding that Bitcoin could “severely test” the company’s conviction.
A move below $50,000 would place Strategy underwater, as its current average Bitcoin entry stands at $74,079. The company recently bought another 487 BTC for $49.9 million, doubling down despite the downturn.
Bitcoin’s fall below $100,000 has sparked concerns about a deeper bearish shift. At around $95,000, the pullback has dragged Strategy’s stock price under $200, cutting its market cap to $60 billion. As a result, MSTR’s mNAV has dropped below 1, meaning its market valuation is now below the value of its BTC holdings, estimated at $61 billion.
MSTR is down more than 30% year-to-date and nearly 50% over the last six months, despite hitting a 2025 high of roughly $455 earlier this year.
Analysts Predict BTC Bottom Between $38,000 and $50,000
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez supports Brandt’s view, noting that Bitcoin could bottom in the $38,000–$50,000 range based on the four-year cycle. This pattern suggests that BTC may already be entering a bear phase.
However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju disagrees, stating Bitcoin is not in a bear market as long as capital inflows continue. He emphasized that BTC could rebound quickly if long-term holders stop selling and broader macro sentiment stabilizes.
CryptoQuant attributes the current correction to U.S. liquidity pressures, tax-related profit-taking from long-term holders, and persistent selling from American investors. The firm notes that this downturn is being driven primarily by U.S. market conditions.
