Oil prices fell on Tuesday as expectations of another OPEC+ production increase and the restart of crude exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region pointed to a looming supply surplus.
Brent crude futures for November delivery, which expire Tuesday, dropped 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $67.69 a barrel by 06:30 GMT. The more active December contract slipped 33 cents, or 0.5%, to $66.76. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 29 cents, or 0.5%, at $63.16 a barrel.
The declines extended Monday’s losses, when both Brent and WTI fell more than 3%, marking their sharpest daily drop since August 1.
According to IG analyst Tony Sycamore, the drop came after Iraq’s Kurdistan region resumed crude exports over the weekend and reports suggested OPEC+ may approve another output increase at its meeting this weekend. Sources familiar with the talks said the group is expected to raise production by at least 137,000 barrels per day in November.
Marex analyst Ed Meir noted that even though OPEC+ remains below its production quota, markets are reacting negatively to the prospect of more oil hitting the market.
Over the weekend, crude shipments resumed through a pipeline from Iraq’s Kurdistan region to Turkey for the first time in two and a half years, after an interim agreement resolved a long-standing dispute, the Iraqi oil ministry confirmed.
Oil markets remain cautious, balancing supply risks from Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian refineries against concerns of oversupply and weak demand. Adding to bearish sentiment, the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown has raised fresh worries about demand, ANZ analysts said.
A shutdown could disrupt government services and delay key economic data releases, including Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report — an important input for the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump secured Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s support for a U.S.-backed Gaza peace proposal, although Hamas has yet to clarify its position.
