Barclays Warns: U.S. Sanctions on Russia Could Send Oil Prices Above $85
New U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers could tighten global energy supplies and push Brent crude above $85 per barrel, according to a new Barclays report released on Friday.
The U.S. Treasury Department announced sanctions this week against Rosneft and Lukoil, two major companies that together produce over half of Russia’s crude oil and condensate output. Barclays said this move marks a significant shift in U.S. policy as Washington seeks to increase pressure on Moscow after diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine have stalled.
Oil Market Faces Potential Supply Shock
Barclays noted that markets remain mostly calm, but warned that a prolonged supply disruption could trigger an asymmetric upside risk for oil prices. If Russian oil exports to India were completely halted, the bank said, it would erase the expected surplus for next year and likely drive Brent crude prices above $85 per barrel.
The Treasury has issued a temporary license allowing limited risk-reduction and maintenance transactions until November 21. After that date, all deals or activities benefiting Rosneft, Lukoil, or their subsidiaries will be prohibited, according to Barclays.
Market Still Skeptical of Long-Term Impact
Despite these warnings, Barclays said market participants remain skeptical about a lasting disruption in Russian oil exports. The oil sector has shown remarkable resilience since 2022, continuing to operate despite earlier sanctions and infrastructure attacks.
Barclays data shows that Russia’s total oil exports have averaged 6.9 million barrels per day in 2025, compared with 7.3 million in 2023 and 7.1 million in 2024. The analysts concluded that the oil market’s recent calm may soon give way to renewed volatility.
